Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ.TO)

It has flatlined, because it ran up last year and oil prices came off. But CNQ is in good shape: high-margin synthetic crude oil volumes are growing, exposure to the Duvernet is growing through acquisition and have options in natural gas. CNQ is one of the best oil/gas companies.

Recently weakened, trading below 200-day MA, which itself is starting to move sideways and slightly lower. That raises some concerns for him. US energy sector is showing better (up 3.5%) performance than Canada (up 1%).

We don't yet know when, if, or how much for tariffs. If you want energy exposure, look to weight more heavily in US names. He's looking at this pretty closely.

On energy, he's a longer-term bull in the sense that we have supply constraints. He can't tell how short-term world issues will be resolved. But as we electrify the world, the world gets more power-hungry. The need for energy production, on all sorts of levels, is huge.

Likes the natural gas exposure in this name. At this level, fully valued. Gets interesting below $40. Above $50, he's neutral. Accumulate on weakness, trim on strength. An income play; don't expect it to be a major growth part of your portfolio.

Probably the top oil (mainly) & gas stock in Canada. Quite a significant name in Canada, with market cap just under $100B. Global recognition. High quality, well run. Significantly strong assets in Western Canada. Be cognizant that "drill, baby, drill" may create an overhang over time of more oil production in the US (our major export destination).

The whole energy complex in US and Canada is up across the board, related to US policy sanctions of Russian oil. So oil prices jumped up. A puzzle as to why this name hasn't also moved, must be company-specific. Could be a canary in a coal mine, so you want to ask some questions.

One of the best management teams in the world. Long-term perspective. Very strategic and disciplined capital allocation decisions. Every single employee is offered stock options, so they're all aligned with the same long-term goals. One of the best business cultures she's seen.

Likes the mix of approximately 60/40 oil to gas. Makes $$ even off these low energy prices; anything higher is a bonus. Recent acquisition elevated debt, but 1-2 years should sort this out and then they'll be back to paying 100% free cashflow to shareholders. Slow decline rate, with average reserve lifespan ~33 years. Stock came off with fears of Trump blanket tariff, which she thinks is overblown; NA energy is too intertwined for this to be viable. Yield is 5%, and the dividend increases.

If you're patient, a name to hold forever.

Canadian energy is still very good and should continue to be very good. There could be greater economic integration between Canada and the U.S.

It's oversold. Crude oil's price is turning up and we'll be getting a broad-based rally in energy stocks. You can add at current levels. It's testing resistance now. CNQ should bounce 10% in the next month.

He's starting to leg into oil, one toe at a time. An approach he'd recommend for the whole sector.

Bought a 2% position not long ago. May be breaking support, so that's the tough part. Seasonality is February/March, so may not see a lot of good activity in the patch until the new year. As long as the trendline holds, without too much aggressive breaking of it, he'd stay with it.

Doesn't own, but watches quite closely. First-class operator. A good buy when oil pulls back. Very difficult in this space to be counter-cyclical, and this one does it well. Economic payoff profile for oil sands is very attractive -- big capex up front, but cashflow for a very long time.

She owns pipelines, not energy producers. Crude oil's price has been down this year and the outlook looks weak. Trump is very pro-energy and wants to increase supply. CNQ trades at a premium, but has a strong balance sheet and historically has the flexibility to buy other companies. She can't predict oil prices. It pays an attractive 5.1% dividend.

Likes it. Probability that Trump gets away with tariffs is fairly small, he's just negotiating. Trump needs to be reminded that tariffs are taxes, and US taxes are already high enough. 

Increased portfolio of heavy crude, despite difficulties getting it out of Canada. De-bottlenecking the Keystone pipeline would be positive. Narrative on this name will likely be soft for a few months.

Oil price is low, OPEC is extending cuts. Expectations of a slower economy impacts demand. May also see challenges if Trump encourages oil production. The challenges are showing up in the oil stocks. 

Chart shows a breakdown, negative profile. He'd hold off for both. Next seasonally strong time is February, perhaps late January. At that time, he'd prefer CNQ.

Flat, but has done better than rest of energy group. Valuation's higher than some mid-sized producers, but it's earned its premium valuation. Demonstrated growth. Quality and safety, but paying for it. Gets more international attention.

He'd rather look at names with much lower valuations and better potential for growth and shareholder returns. Consider names like BTE, CVE, or VRN.

One of his primary holdings in the energy sector. He's fairly bullish on energy, particularly oil & gas. Great company.