Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ.TO)

He's starting to leg into oil, one toe at a time. An approach he'd recommend for the whole sector.

Bought a 2% position not long ago. May be breaking support, so that's the tough part. Seasonality is February/March, so may not see a lot of good activity in the patch until the new year. As long as the trendline holds, without too much aggressive breaking of it, he'd stay with it.

Doesn't own, but watches quite closely. First-class operator. A good buy when oil pulls back. Very difficult in this space to be counter-cyclical, and this one does it well. Economic payoff profile for oil sands is very attractive -- big capex up front, but cashflow for a very long time.

She owns pipelines, not energy producers. Crude oil's price has been down this year and the outlook looks weak. Trump is very pro-energy and wants to increase supply. CNQ trades at a premium, but has a strong balance sheet and historically has the flexibility to buy other companies. She can't predict oil prices. It pays an attractive 5.1% dividend.

Likes it. Probability that Trump gets away with tariffs is fairly small, he's just negotiating. Trump needs to be reminded that tariffs are taxes, and US taxes are already high enough. 

Increased portfolio of heavy crude, despite difficulties getting it out of Canada. De-bottlenecking the Keystone pipeline would be positive. Narrative on this name will likely be soft for a few months.

Oil price is low, OPEC is extending cuts. Expectations of a slower economy impacts demand. May also see challenges if Trump encourages oil production. The challenges are showing up in the oil stocks. 

Chart shows a breakdown, negative profile. He'd hold off for both. Next seasonally strong time is February, perhaps late January. At that time, he'd prefer CNQ.

Flat, but has done better than rest of energy group. Valuation's higher than some mid-sized producers, but it's earned its premium valuation. Demonstrated growth. Quality and safety, but paying for it. Gets more international attention.

He'd rather look at names with much lower valuations and better potential for growth and shareholder returns. Consider names like BTE, CVE, or VRN.

One of his primary holdings in the energy sector. He's fairly bullish on energy, particularly oil & gas. Great company.

He doesn't generally participate in the E&P space, as it's hard to make decisions based on the underlying commodity price. Bigger picture, still huge demand for Canadian oil and gas on world markets. EVs won't take over anytime soon.

Very strong operations. Very focused on shareholders by returning $$ to them and paying down debt. Would have been his top choice, until SU ended up turning things around.

One of the best management teams in the world. Share buybacks are in place and is a cash flow machine.

Generally, energy is a beneficiary of a Trump administration. Value in the energy market, given where oil prices are. Going forward, some of the US names may perform a bit better than Canadian names. If we avoid a recession (his view), then oil prices can move higher. If fiscal stimulus in China can push that economy, would benefit oil prices.

Yield is ~4.6%, no risk to that. Attractive name to own as part of your portfolio.

(2 for 1 stock split on 11 June 2024) 
Commodity bull markets last a long time once they get going. Pullback gives you an opportunity, he'd buy today. Especially given short life of US shale assets, companies like this should command a premium over the cycle. Plans to own for a long time.

Likes it. Well-run company. Wait until tax-loss selling ends in December. Seasonality for energy runs December-May, unlike the price of gas suddenly recovers. Buy on weakness for the long-term.

Just became a dividend aristocrat, with 25 consecutive years of dividend increases. Benefiting from Trans Mountain. Price has come back because oil prices have fallen. To get stock back to all-time high of $55-56, need oil to return to $80-85. Doesn't really matter, as it will continue to raise the dividend and buy back stock. Athabasca acquisition was brilliant.

Own for the dividend and dividend growth, anything on top is icing on the cake. Loves it.

Wonderful company. As a strong operator, it doesn't get much better. Consolidating footprint in oil sands, as US companies are exiting. Deals are massively accretive, making it more of a cashflow compounder. Long resource life. Cashflow juggernaut, great business, undervalued.

Pulled back pretty hard over the last week, so now is the time to look. Oversupply into 2025 will bring some weakness. Lots of options to create value. Wouldn't own if oil dropped to $70 or below.

He's light in energy. CNQ has rallied recently after being rangebound.