Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ.TO)

(Stock split 11 June 2024)  She's still bullish. More volatile than normal. Fairly valued. One of the highest quality businesses in senior O&G universe. 15-18% upside potential to the highest price targets, so she's going to ride it a bit longer. Yield is 4%. 

8/10 on both fundamentals and value. The street has it at Outperform.

Every time he's sold, he's regretted it. 35 years of stay-flat inventory, 6x PE, shareholders are now getting 100% free cashflow. 10-11% free cashflow yield for 2025-2026. Fortress balance sheet, extremely competent management team. Yield is 4.2%.

A Conservative government in Ottawa would champion the sector, providing another catalyst to eliminate the discount applied to Canadian oil and gas stocks.

It is a great operator that is shareholder friendly like many other oil and gas companies. He doesn't own because he is not sure of where oil prices are going. If there is a shift to renewables then less oil will be needed. If oil prices become greatly depressed then maybe it becomes a buy.

Part of his core portfolio. A buy today. Pricing is a bit lower than the average of the broader market. He'd still like to see continued earnings growth and improved cashflow. Great company with great prospects. Still massive demand for energy and it's well positioned.

Management's executed incredibly well over the years, whether on acquisitions or on projects. Will suffer a bit with the price of oil; if oil can get higher, stock will do well. He's attracted by its paying down debt, reducing capex, and buying back shares.

Don't have to go outside Canada to invest in oil & gas. We have a great O&G industry, and this is a great name to own.

He sold earlier this year as technicals and, more importantly, RSI deteriorated. Pulled back. Too early to say if it's bottomed out or not. He'd be looking for a better base forming and improvement in RSI.

He likes commodities in general. Stayflation will likely continue, and so commodities are likely into a new mega-cycle. It broke out, now pulling back to breakout point. May go sideways for a while, but then likely to break out based on the look of oil itself.

He owns personally and for clients. It is one of the best managed companies in the space. Cash flow growth leads to share buybacks. LNG in Canada means big growth possibilities. . We're not there yet but there are big opportunities in natural gas. There is big demand in the U.S.

Likes it. Attractive today, and will get more attractive as the actual dividend payout ratio approaches 100%. Unique in the oil world because their netbacks are high and cash costs are low. Reserve-life durability is very long. It can drive the ebb and flow of the oil cycle as few others in the industry can.

If you have to own oil or participate in energy, start with this name. Becomes a low-beta proxy for the oil price as a whole.

Should do well. Consistently compounds capital for investors. Way more shareholder friendly with buybacks, dividend increases, and debt paydown. Valuation still quite reasonable, given what it is. 

As inflation expectations go up and down, investors are positioning their portfolios for one or the other. On the deceleration trade, people are selling materials and energy stocks. A bit of a headwind between quarters, as the trade becomes more macro-focused. Keep holding. It's all just noise and volatility.

The numbers are phenomenal, and should be for next few years. You'll see the highs once again as things settle between the different strategies that investors are deploying.

We may be underestimating the cashflow-generation potential of some of our largest resource producers, who have found some religion in returning cashflow to shareholders. You should get 20% dividend growth going forward. Growing earnings at 20%, not a ton of capex to do. Buying back shares. But if you can get a 4+% yield that grows at 20%, in a company that has a really great balance sheet, that's pretty attractive.

Oil has been weak in recent days over concerns of Chinese demand and stockpiles in the U.S. Kamala Harris could pressure oil companies as she has done in the past, so he's watching that. Most of the turbulence in oil is merely noise, but you can collect the dividend.

Good time to buy if under weight in portfolio within energy. However, company is fairly value. Nevertheless, company is a great long term hold. Strong assets and very good management.  

Energy stocks in Canada have been a challenge. Big run at start of the year, rolling over since then. Disappointing, given that price of oil holding nicely above $80 USD. Peaked around $56, steady stream of lower highs. 

Now looking for how it acts around $50. Broke $50 in June, traded down to $45 and bounced, hit $50 and started to stall. If it were to climb back up through $50 in a meaningful way, would be really encouraging. But when you see an old support become a new resistance, especially a big round number like $50, and it fails, that becomes a new concern that it's still under distribution and not ready yet.

In the short term, one stock will lead and one will lag. It's not something he really focuses on because he's a long-term holder, not a trader. Great assets with long-term life, wall of free cashflow, incredible management, and Murray Edwards still owns a gigantic stake in the company. 

Sees many more years of share buybacks and growing production. Gushing money right now, so share buybacks make a lot of sense, especially if production is going to grow over the long term.

Wildcard is oil and natural gas prices. Oil above $80 or even $70 is very profitable for CNQ. Stock's run up a lot, so perhaps investors are rotating into cheaper alternatives. Yield is 4+%.