Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ.TO)

The only oil stock he owns. Never cut its dividend. Low-cost producer, profitable at $40 oil, so oil has to fall a long way for it to not make money. Great free cashflow generator. Disciplined capital expenditures. Conservative, great, wonderful business.

Core holding, along with SU and TOU. Of oil & gas, gas is probably the better bet right now with LNG coming onstream. Trump says a lot of things and, on the broken-clock theory, some of it may be accurate. But you can't just turn on the tap.

Considerable underinvestment in oil for a while, particularly in Canada. PM Carney is no particular friend of the sector. If onshoring of all this production comes back to America, they're going to have to power it somehow. And there won't be enough windmills, nuclear plants, or solar panels to do it.

If she could make this a Top Pick again, she would. Very high conviction on its future. Premier oil company at a discounted price. One of the best management teams in the world. Premier assets and cost structure. Consistently good acquisitions at a good price that are accretive. Strong record of share buybacks and dividend increases.

Revenues are slightly down YOY, but that's a function of oil prices being down. Likes the 60/40 mix of gas to oil.

Loves it as one of the biggest oil & gas producers. Strong mix of crude, nat gas, and synthetic oil. Production set to grow 12% in 2025. Counting on new Trans Mountain to boost profit. 9/10 on value, 8/10 on fundamentals. US tariffs are a risk, along with unpredictable oil prices.

Paying down debt, strong balance sheet. Chevron assets expected to add nicely to FCF profile. Solid pick for steady cashflow. Yield is 5.5%, reliable.

Concerns about economy, sentiment around energy stocks is lower, oil prices are weak as well. He sold. Long-term, makes sense to own oil and energy. 200-day MA is flat, trending slightly down. Price now below 200-day. Down 26-27% from recent highs. Technicals don't look great. Yield is ~5.65%.

SU is the only true energy name in his portfolio.

He sold a little while ago, and here's why. Chart shows it moving up, and then it consolidated (which he's fine with). Old resistance became new support. Then all of a sudden it broke down. He gave it a couple of weeks, then sold.

He owns a lot of shares. It's sold off because Canada is for sale since January due to Trump tariffs; energy is for sale again because of oil tariffs; CNQ is exposed to these factors. US shale production is peaking in the next 2 years, as will non-OPEC supply growth. So, there will be massive demand for companies with deep reserves as the demand for oil grows. It trades at 6.4x cash flow at $70 oil, an 11% free cash flow yield; and a 9% cash return (dividend + share buybacks). This is massively oversold.

The only oil stock he owns. Earnings this morning were pretty good. Cyclical business, but has never cut dividend. Well run, low-cost producer. Good upside and good downside protection. 

One of the great energy companies in NA, great runway. Long-life reserves. Will be in decent shape even if oil prices soften; break-even is ~$40 WTI. Yield is 5+%.

We would be fine buying, though we do not think it would need to be all at once. We would focus on CNQ, SU, TOU for producers. 
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Oil prices have come off due to Russia-Ukraine war and inflation. Owns it mainly for income, grows its dividend and that will continue. If you tell him what oil prices will do, he can tell you what this stock will do. Loves the deals it's made. Balance sheet in great shape.

It flat-lined with the sector but is in good shape coming into 2025 with lots of momentum on high margins, etc. It one of the best oil and gas companies. There is lots of optionality for natural gas.

Likes it very much, first-class operator. Unique ability to be counter-cyclical. Gushes lots of cash. Uncertainty of how tariffs will impact Canadian producers; this name likely caught up in it, as it's such a large index component. Watch and wait.

Benefit to CAD weakening, as it sells in USD and converts it back. Refining assets give a small hedge, but not as much as SU or IMO which are both more vertically integrated.

It has flatlined, because it ran up last year and oil prices came off. But CNQ is in good shape: high-margin synthetic crude oil volumes are growing, exposure to the Duvernet is growing through acquisition and have options in natural gas. CNQ is one of the best oil/gas companies.

Recently weakened, trading below 200-day MA, which itself is starting to move sideways and slightly lower. That raises some concerns for him. US energy sector is showing better (up 3.5%) performance than Canada (up 1%).

We don't yet know when, if, or how much for tariffs. If you want energy exposure, look to weight more heavily in US names. He's looking at this pretty closely.

On energy, he's a longer-term bull in the sense that we have supply constraints. He can't tell how short-term world issues will be resolved. But as we electrify the world, the world gets more power-hungry. The need for energy production, on all sorts of levels, is huge.

Likes the natural gas exposure in this name. At this level, fully valued. Gets interesting below $40. Above $50, he's neutral. Accumulate on weakness, trim on strength. An income play; don't expect it to be a major growth part of your portfolio.