Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ.TO)

Concerns about economy, sentiment around energy stocks is lower, oil prices are weak as well. He sold. Long-term, makes sense to own oil and energy. 200-day MA is flat, trending slightly down. Price now below 200-day. Down 26-27% from recent highs. Technicals don't look great. Yield is ~5.65%.

SU is the only true energy name in his portfolio.

He sold a little while ago, and here's why. Chart shows it moving up, and then it consolidated (which he's fine with). Old resistance became new support. Then all of a sudden it broke down. He gave it a couple of weeks, then sold.

He owns a lot of shares. It's sold off because Canada is for sale since January due to Trump tariffs; energy is for sale again because of oil tariffs; CNQ is exposed to these factors. US shale production is peaking in the next 2 years, as will non-OPEC supply growth. So, there will be massive demand for companies with deep reserves as the demand for oil grows. It trades at 6.4x cash flow at $70 oil, an 11% free cash flow yield; and a 9% cash return (dividend + share buybacks). This is massively oversold.

The only oil stock he owns. Earnings this morning were pretty good. Cyclical business, but has never cut dividend. Well run, low-cost producer. Good upside and good downside protection. 

One of the great energy companies in NA, great runway. Long-life reserves. Will be in decent shape even if oil prices soften; break-even is ~$40 WTI. Yield is 5+%.

We would be fine buying, though we do not think it would need to be all at once. We would focus on CNQ, SU, TOU for producers. 
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Oil prices have come off due to Russia-Ukraine war and inflation. Owns it mainly for income, grows its dividend and that will continue. If you tell him what oil prices will do, he can tell you what this stock will do. Loves the deals it's made. Balance sheet in great shape.

It flat-lined with the sector but is in good shape coming into 2025 with lots of momentum on high margins, etc. It one of the best oil and gas companies. There is lots of optionality for natural gas.

Likes it very much, first-class operator. Unique ability to be counter-cyclical. Gushes lots of cash. Uncertainty of how tariffs will impact Canadian producers; this name likely caught up in it, as it's such a large index component. Watch and wait.

Benefit to CAD weakening, as it sells in USD and converts it back. Refining assets give a small hedge, but not as much as SU or IMO which are both more vertically integrated.

It has flatlined, because it ran up last year and oil prices came off. But CNQ is in good shape: high-margin synthetic crude oil volumes are growing, exposure to the Duvernet is growing through acquisition and have options in natural gas. CNQ is one of the best oil/gas companies.

Recently weakened, trading below 200-day MA, which itself is starting to move sideways and slightly lower. That raises some concerns for him. US energy sector is showing better (up 3.5%) performance than Canada (up 1%).

We don't yet know when, if, or how much for tariffs. If you want energy exposure, look to weight more heavily in US names. He's looking at this pretty closely.

On energy, he's a longer-term bull in the sense that we have supply constraints. He can't tell how short-term world issues will be resolved. But as we electrify the world, the world gets more power-hungry. The need for energy production, on all sorts of levels, is huge.

Likes the natural gas exposure in this name. At this level, fully valued. Gets interesting below $40. Above $50, he's neutral. Accumulate on weakness, trim on strength. An income play; don't expect it to be a major growth part of your portfolio.

Probably the top oil (mainly) & gas stock in Canada. Quite a significant name in Canada, with market cap just under $100B. Global recognition. High quality, well run. Significantly strong assets in Western Canada. Be cognizant that "drill, baby, drill" may create an overhang over time of more oil production in the US (our major export destination).

The whole energy complex in US and Canada is up across the board, related to US policy sanctions of Russian oil. So oil prices jumped up. A puzzle as to why this name hasn't also moved, must be company-specific. Could be a canary in a coal mine, so you want to ask some questions.

One of the best management teams in the world. Long-term perspective. Very strategic and disciplined capital allocation decisions. Every single employee is offered stock options, so they're all aligned with the same long-term goals. One of the best business cultures she's seen.

Likes the mix of approximately 60/40 oil to gas. Makes $$ even off these low energy prices; anything higher is a bonus. Recent acquisition elevated debt, but 1-2 years should sort this out and then they'll be back to paying 100% free cashflow to shareholders. Slow decline rate, with average reserve lifespan ~33 years. Stock came off with fears of Trump blanket tariff, which she thinks is overblown; NA energy is too intertwined for this to be viable. Yield is 5%, and the dividend increases.

If you're patient, a name to hold forever.

Canadian energy is still very good and should continue to be very good. There could be greater economic integration between Canada and the U.S.