Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

This was one of his major Shorts at the start of the year and he is not doing well on it. Thinks it has come too far, too fast. It’s a competitive world out there with their components. Historically this has been a volatile stock. He would be cautious on this and not take a new position.

Probably the poor cousin of Nvidia (NVDA-Q) right now. While they have a chip coming that is comparable, there is a difference between having great ideas and running the business, whereas Nvidia has been able to do both. This company has had difficulty in running their business. They haven’t been growing their cash flow and it hasn’t been generating positive cash flows, so they have been sinking a lot of money into CapX and R&D. Looking at their past, they still haven’t proven that they are able to get all their ducks in a row, so they can keep moving forward.

All tech stocks have run up substantially, and are starting to run out of steam. They’ve run up because of optimism about China as well as the opportunity to repatriate capital off the back of Trump’s regime. You might want to wait and see what happens. Typically, semiconductor stocks are about 3 years in length, and we are about 5 years in this one.

This has fallen about 25% since it reported earnings. They had a couple of new lines of chips with a couple of new ones and lots of hype on. They’ve been tested and are not any better than Intel chips, some saying not quite as good. The company took a big hit on that, and is probably at a point where you are going to see some support. This is purely an option play. The option premiums have expanded dramatically because the stock sold off. A very good Covered Write in his opinion. If the stock does not get called away, you can do it again 6 months from now.

One of two with graphics processing. AMD-Q has been focusing on the wrong things however. The new president is trying to turn things around. He cannot buy it for clients, although there are lots of opportunities for growth.

Chip Maker. You need to look at it as the inputs to secular growth trends like virtual reality, drones, and many others. You need to be careful of international trade policy revisions. You may prefer Intel as safer and get a half position in that as well.

In the hardware group in technology, Cisco (CSCO-Q) is one of the key names he is taking a close look at. AMD and a number of the semiconductors have had a monstrous run and valuations just aren’t there for an entry point.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD-Q) or Intel (INTC-Q)? Neither of these would be his pick for a US stock. Intel is probably the better of the 2. This one is a little more challenged because it is such a small player in that market. Cisco (CSCO-Q) looks better. It is a CapX company, and there has been a CapX starvation globally. It is positioned at about 12.5X earnings and the earnings growth over the next 2-3 years looks to be about 13%-15%.

On most semiconductor companies, you have to be careful and wait to see how the stock plays. This one is effectively a company that is an “also-ran” relative to Intel. Intel (INTC-Q) has announced a new small chip program to the mobile and the much smaller device market so he thinks Intel is a better company. This market is struggling a little bit.

Advanced Micro (AMD-N) versus Intel (INTC-Q)? Intel is obviously the gorilla in this space with their 10%-15% marginal share. If she had to choose between the 2, she would pick Intel because they have much more 80+ share. They will participate more if we see the PC market start to improve.

Not as well-positioned as some of the growth market of tablets, smart phones, etc. Doesn’t expect great things from this stock over the next year or 2.

It could be a sympathy move with Intel. Fantastic breakout. A breakout through a base is the most bullish thing you could see. You could get a test of the breakout and then on to new highs.

Effectively slugging it out with Intel (INTC-Q) in the PC market where they get the majority of their income. PC outlook is not great. You have to ask yourself if this company can move its product line into a different market to get some growth. Both leaders in the PC market are effectively getting beaten up.

(A Top Short May 3/12. Up 71.79%.) This was a pairs trade with Intel (INTC-Q). This has a seasonal period where it goes down from May 5 to July 29. He sold after it had gone down about 20%.

Short. This company will not survive the PC era. They make chips and they don’t have the means to buy themselves out of the market and he thinks it’s going to zero.