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TSE:AGU

Agrium (AGU.TO)

WEAK BUY
Is not making new lows, but quietly going up. Get out if it goes against you by 5%
BUY
They make more money in the spring; they have an outstanding bid for a competitor acquisition; and as diets improve in Asia, grains have to be produced and fertilizer prices have to go up.
WATCH
Very bullish on agriculture for the mid to long-term. This stock is substantially down from its high. Bought a retail business a while ago and this will do fine in the long term. Currently it is trying to acquire another company and when this happens, you have arbitrators coming in.
COMMENT
Trying to acquire CF Industries (CF-N), who in turn are trying to merge with Terra Industries (TRA-N). Thinks CF shareholders would rather get the premium rather than acquiring Terra. Likes the geographic synergies. (See Top Picks.)
BUY
In the long-term, the world has to feed 2 to 3 billion more people and the fertilizer producers are in an excellent position to do it particularly Potash (POT-T) and Agrium (AGU-T).
BUY
Has become a supplier of farm products. Recently made a bid to take over CF Industries (CF-N), which their board rejected. If you are concerned about short-term volatility, wait. A cheap way into the agricultural area.
BUY
Nitrogen prices have been firming up and are one of the first agricultural commodities to move to the more positive side. Expecting core production will be big. If you don't mind volatility, a good long-term hold.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick March 26/08. Up 71.1%.) Sold in June/08 because of weakening in earnings and expectations. Starting to look interesting but not ready to buy yet.
TOP PICK
The market is not recognizing intrinsic value. Should be in the $115 range.
BUY
The whole agricultural complex was based on demand from emerging markets and he still thinks this is true. Pendulum swung too far when the market were not but has now been oversold.
BUY
Other than gold, food is the only other sector that he is bullish on. This is something that people just have to have.
BUY
$15 off its 52-week low, which he feels may be a good sign of good things to come. Holding reasonably well. Have added equity to the balance sheet. Reasonably cheap.
TOP PICK
Soft cyclical. Fertilizer with exposure to the retail side but also to potash, nitrogen and phosphate. It looks like the prices being negotiated are going to be quite firm. Planting was postponed in North America in the 4th quarter. Expecting higher earnings.
BUY
Agriculture will be one of the safest areas to be in the next few years. This company is well run. Starting to work its way back. Valuation is now much more attractive. If you are willing to stick it out for 2 to 3 years you should do exceptionally well.
BUY
Likes fertilizer stocks. Very inexpensive. Seasonality is good here. Canadian crops look good. China and Latin America are having droughts.
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