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TSE:AGU

Agrium (AGU.TO)

COMMENT
Nitrogen plus potash plus retail operations in the US. In a bidding war for CF Industries (CF-N). This is a concern and if they do win can they nicely merge? Prefers Potash (POT-T).
BUY
Have gotten into a fray with CF Industries (CF-N) and Terra Industries (TRA-N). Continues to like the business overall. If they are able to add CF to the mix, that would be positive.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Nitrogen fertilizer. Thinks that prices are ahead of themselves but it is on his radar. On a decent selloff here be looking at buying either Agrium (AGU-T) or Potash (POT-T).
BUY
If you are concerned about North America and North American markets this is really an international stock. A lot of people didn't buy enough fertilizer last year because the price was too high.
BUY
Could pull back further because it has the bid battle for CF Industries (CF-N). If it doesn't get it, it's a pity but it's still a very nice stock.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Buy Agium (AGU-T) and Potash (POT-T) near the end of June for a seasonal play through to the end of December. Might have started a little bit early this year because grain prices are starting to move higher meaning farmers are making more money. Has worked 8 out of 10 years but didn’t work last year. Looking for a pullback in June.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 26/08. Down 31.48%.) Will report a relatively weak 09 but 2010 earnings will be quite high. Still buying for clients.
TOP PICK
There are 6.5 billion people in the world and there is 1.5 months supply of grain and we are using up 99% of arable land. Long-term play.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 27/08. Down 31.4%.) Very confident for the long-term. A lot of farmers skipped fertilizing this year but this is short-term. One of the best Canadian companies to own.
TOP PICK
With this you get a completely vertically integrated agriculture investment. 60% of their business is retail. He uses a stoploss.
TOP PICK
Beautiful steadily inclining chart and he likes the agricultural sector. Fairly good positive earnings. Can see it hitting $60 before the end of the year very easily. Use a stoploss of $49.
WAIT
In a great uptrend and just started hitting resistance. Has a beta of 1.5X so it is a real proxy for the market. If you are really bullish on the market you should be all over this but if you think it is due for a pause, which he does, hold off. Wait until you see if it holds above $50 for a while.
COMMENT
Positive on agriculture. Prefers Potash (POT-T).
DON'T BUY
Agriculture cycle is not over. Caught up in take-over battle. Agrium may win. Prefers POT
BUY
No doubt they will benefit going forward. Likes their business. People are shorting AGU against CF. Could see a significant rebound if economy rebounds.
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