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TSE:AGU

Agrium (AGU.TO)

WAIT
Has formed a nice base pattern and is potentially forming a reverse head and shoulders pattern, which is bullish. If it gets above the top trading range of $51.30, it could move quite nicely. Seasonality is not good at this time of year. Normally you want to wait for seasonal strength, end of June to end of December.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick March 26/08. Down 35.3%.) Sold in June/08 and was up 71%. This is not screening well at all now. Expects demand for fertilizer will go down in 09.
STRONG BUY
The 2 potash companies he likes are Agrium (AGU-T) and Potash (POT-T). Likes both of them long haul. There is no question that China and India are going to need potash fertilizer. It is very clear that most of the small start-up companies will never be able to finance a new mine. This one has a little more exposure to the retail level.
BUY
(Market Call Minute.) Outlook for agricultural commodities is probably better than for metal commodities.
HOLD
(Market Call Minute.) One of the key fertilizer stocks going forward.
BUY
Saskatchewan is the Saudi Arabia of the agriculture and this company is a beneficiary. Also has an agricultural supply company in the US. One area that is likely to show a substantial longer-term growth it will be food production. Thinks emerging middle classes will continue to eat a higher protein diet.
TOP PICK
Believes fertilizer companies are well positioned for the next couple of years. Even if its 4X earnings were cut in half, it is still a pretty decent opportunity. Loves the retail aspect of this.
BUY
We are going through a commodity cycle in the midst of an agricultural cycle. Ultimately though, this is a great place to be. Earnings are going down this year. Reasonably valued. A name you want to put away for a while.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 12/07. Down 31%.) Depends on the ability of selling to cautious farmers.
TOP PICK
Likes agriculture in general. In this case, you get exposure to all of the nutrients. Also likes their US retail business, which they will make money on. Less than 4X earnings.
SELL
(Market Call Minute.) Would be tempted to sell. Longer-term fundamentals for fertilizer might be well but we are entering a period where a lot of economies are slowing down.
BUY
(Market Call Minute.) Great profit characteristics. It will weaken in the next little while but is a good emerge in economy story.
BUY
Not a pure commodity play. Has some retail. Any concerns on farmers spending less could create problems. Likes it right here. Very cheap.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick March 26/08. Down 50%.) Economics have changed and we now have a great slowdown globally. Technicals took him out of this some time ago. Not a Buy.
COMMENT
Thinks it will come down further. Acquired a huge business in the US last year and the earnings will be a lot more in Cdn$’s. Very cheap stock. Likes it long-term.
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