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TSE:AGU

Agrium (AGU.TO)

TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 5/08. Down 43.2 %.) Likes agriculture. Has made an offer to acquire CF Industries and he thinks they will be successful. Also likes Potash (POT-T) but this is cheaper.
BUY
Likes fertilizer. Has an offer in to buy CF Industries so there might be some volatility. Good entry point for holding for the next year or 2.
TOP PICK
You get a bit of each of the fertilizers, potash, nitrogen and phosphate. Trying to acquire CF Industries, which would be a positive if they get it at the price they are offering. With the fertilizer pullback their chances are higher.
WATCH
Well diversified business that is not solely reliant on potash. It does get tied in with this and has struggled in the last few weeks. Doesn't see any need to buy this over the next couple of months but does like the agriculture story over a medium to longer term and you should have some in your portfolio.
TOP PICK
On any of the fertilizer stocks, be prepared for ugly numbers in the next 2 quarters but thinks stocks are already reflecting this. Did a good job of vertically integrating. Likes the CF Industries acquisition. Balance sheet is in good shape.
BUY
Likes agriculture and both Potash (POT-T) and Agrium (AGU-T). Great company and well positioned in North America. Trying to acquire CF Industries. Good long-term hold.
BUY
They are trying to acquire CF Industries, which in turn is trying to acquire another company. They are down because people are shorting this one and are long on CF Industries. Farmers have stopped putting fertilizer on their fields.
TOP PICK
The fundamentals of food on a long-term basis are just unbelievable. Hopes the acquisition of CF Industries goes through. This will put them ahead of Potash (POT-T) and make them the #3 agricultural company globally.
BUY
High risk because of fluctuations in underlying commodity prices. Been diversifying by acquiring retailers in the US. In the process of trying to acquire a competitor, C F Industries in the US. Very volatile. Expecting demand will come back next year. Prefers Potash POT-T).
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Likes the fertilizer space. Potash (POT-T) profit warned after the close and this will impact the stocks for a day or so. Thinks the market is already discounting that 2009 numbers will not be good. 2010 numbers will be really good.
COMMENT
Fertilizer story is quite interesting. Potash (POT-T) just announced they are cutting back on production because farmers are refusing to buy at the high prices. He is very bullish on the farm companies in the long run but not necessarily for this year. Globally there are shortages of grain and could be one bad harvest away from disaster. Eventually demand will grow.
COMMENT
Fertilizer prices have been dropping and it's only a matter of time before they come back up. In the midst of a takeover battle which is affecting the share price. If they do acquire CF Industries it would be good for the company longer term. (See Top Picks.)
PARTIAL BUY
You could start accumulating on dips. There could be better entry points over the summer.
BUY
(Market Call Minute.) Prefers Potash (POT-T) but thinks you will do well in both.
TOP PICK
Likes agricultural. Under applications of fertilizers this year that is dropping crop yields. Will have to come back and apply a greater amount down the road. Earnings won't look great but they'll start to pick up again. If they get CF Industries (CF-N) it would be great but a good Buy even if they don't.
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