Apple Inc (AAPL)

(A Top Pick Dec 8/15. Down 5.17%.) His model price is $141.30, a 30% upside. Thinks this is just going to mosey about. Expects it will trade back to $94.50. This is going to be a beneficiary of higher valuations and higher stock prices as the US$ goes up.

The medium term concern is that they have to make a transition to making money from not just one device. They will face margin compression. The stock is not expensive. They have a rock solid balance sheet.

Holding 10% in a portfolio. Cash out? 10% is pushing it in terms of concentration. He would prefer about half of that in a 20-stock portfolio, and would recommend taking a little off the table.

Likes this at the current valuation. He had been a bear on it ever since the watch came out. Apple has been given 2 gifts. Samsung Galaxy 7 was a really strong product, and would have been tough competition for iPhone 7, an evolutionary, not revolutionary product for Apple. When Samsung’s phones started catching fire, that was it for them. The 2^nd gift was president elect Trump. If he is able to open up a tax holiday, where companies can repatriate their offshore cash, that is going to be a home run for this company. They have $236 billion in cash, with about 90% of it held offshore. 2017 will be the 10^th anniversary that the initial iPhone was produced, so expect a huge product from this company at that time.

A cheap stock. It is a great company, because it has lots of cash, a great installed base, and continues to come out with new forms. Their Cloud and services business will continue to grow. You are not paying a lot for this. Expects they will continue to increase the dividend. A little bit of an issue is with Trump wanting manufacturing to be done in the US, so phones will cost a lot more. Trading at 12X forward earnings with a dividend of 2%.

(Market Call Minute.) One of those value tech companies. It is hard to see where the growth comes from.

Technology in general tends to do well from October through to January. There are some technical concerns on this. Even though we are in the period of seasonal strength for technology, this really hasn’t benefited with the other economically sensitive names, post the Trump election rally. There was a trend break, and it is starting to curl over again at about the 50-day moving average. The market is telling you that that intermediate level of resistance is going to hold, and could potentially turn lower.

Not a fan right now. They peaked their ROC in 2012, which was 30%. With the trailing 4 quarters, the ROC is 15%, so the ROC has been cut in half. In fairness to them, they have a lot of cash on their balance sheet that they don’t know what to do with, and he would like them to dividend that back out. The cycle for smart phones is probably getting old. He would prefer other places to put your money.

The iPhone is now in a much more mature state but will grow their earnings into the next year. The effect of the election is not known at this time. $220 of $240 Billion dollars of their cash reserves are in Ireland. If there was a tax holiday on repatriated earnings it would be positive for Apple. He thinks it will grow this year but feels you need clarity in the policies of the government before you see a big lift in it.

(A Top Pick Nov 3/15. Down 7.87%.) Last quarter was good. He is a big believer in the IOS system. The multiples are ridiculously cheap.

His office is divided on this. He is not a big fan, but his staff seems to like it better. He wonders if Apple can maintain the huge profit margins that they have. This is expensive, not from the point of view of the P/E ratio, but from the point of view of huge profit margins. It has been very unusual for companies like this to charge such high prices relative to their competitors for electronic goods. His concern is that they won’t be able to keep doing that for too much longer, in which case the stock would not do very well. It is a really tough stock to call, and he would rather invest in different ideas.

Market Call Minute.

The Trump victory throws things wide open, because if they get to repatriate some of their overseas capital, that could give them the opportunity to allocate cash to shareholders. Not a big fan as he thinks they have already hit their plateau, and their innovation is just one iPhone after another.

Don’t confuse a good company with a good investment. We are at the point in the Apple lifecycle where we need the next product, because the next product is going to move the needle. It has to be something that we haven’t seen. This is starting to get to the point where he would say it is time to Sell.

A very interesting purchase here. We are probably getting close to the end of the iPhone product cycle, and expects that they will be going through a transition. They announced they are going to focus on services, which is a little bit of content. At the current valuation, it is an attractive Buy, and there is potential to see some nice upside here.