Apple Inc (AAPL)

The PE multiple is low at about 10 or 11 times. Not a lot of growth and clarity, because the iPhone’s market penetration has probably been saturated. They are coming out with a new phone later this year, which is supposed to be quite a new design compared to the prior ones. They have a lot of cash sitting overseas, so if Trump is successful in reducing the repatriation tax from 35% to 10%, this company will be a natural beneficiary. Then the question is, what do they do with that money.

(Top Pick Feb 4/16, Up 22.22%) His model price is $146.42, a 26% increase. Apple will benefit due to repatriation of earnings. Earning season starts next week.

On a 3-year chart, the stock declined and is currently in a bit of a base. A base is where you start to see the highs reach a similar inflection point. It appears this is breaking out. This looks reasonably bullish as long as it can stay above the breakout point of around $110. His target would be into the high $130, and from there you would have to see where it goes. A reasonably constructive looking chart.

Feels this is yesterday’s stock, and he prefers owning tomorrow’s stocks. Since Steve Jobs died, innovation is not what it used to be. It is more in upgrading rather than new products, other than the watch. He is not a fan.

(A Top Pick Dec 7/15. Down 1.83%.) He believes in the IOS operating system, and thinks this is going to move more towards a software company over time. It will get a higher valuation. It won’t be selling 50 million iPhones a quarter, and there might be some margin pressures, but meanwhile it is trading at 11X forward earnings, probably 9X net of all the cash on the balance sheet. This has huge, huge value in it.

He sees catalysts in this. They have what is called a “refresh” or “repurchase” program with the iPhone. The iPhone 8 is going to be hitting right at that point and grabbing market share, and you are going to have people switching devices. That will bring a new revenue source for them. People have been concerned about declining iPhone sales, and he thinks they will increase in 2017. Repatriation would be massive for this company. They have over $150 billion sitting offshore. The expectation is that if it actually does happen, they are probably going to bring about $100 billion back, which could go into special dividends, dividend increases and share buybacks. Also, they have been significantly increasing the revenue for services. Dividend yield of 1.97%. (Analysts’ price target is $131.65.)

(Market Call Minute.) Very attractively priced.

This has suffered a little. It was in a downtrend from early 2015, and has now broken that, and there is now starting to be a little bit of a pickup. Currently we are in the technology period, where technology can do well. This looks like it is in a fairly good position right now.

He likes this. The biggest challenge for the street is that many look at this company and expect it to look, feel and behave like it did 5-7 years ago. It is simply not the same. The business today is much larger and less nimble than it was 7-8 years ago. It is a much more mature business, a business that has much larger market share in many of the areas that it had where it had very little to zero market share about 10 years ago. Feels they need to beef up their dividend. It has a reasonable dividend of about 2%, but not enough to make investors and analysts look at it as a more mature business.

They’ve done very well over the last 10 years, and the question is, where do they go from here. Do they go into new areas that they haven’t been into? He thinks they’ve been trying, but so far haven’t found the next leg for their growth. Has a good balance sheet and continues to buy back stocks and increase dividends. He wouldn’t expect big things, but they are probably going to do well until they find the next leg of growth.

When this was in the low $90, he bought a small position. He is willing to own this until the next phone launch, which is next fall. The problem is, Mr. Cook is not an innovator, and the best of this company’s days are behind it. It can probably get up to $130-$135. He does not plan to hold the stock after 2017.

(A Top Pick Dec 8/15. Down 5.17%.) His model price is $141.30, a 30% upside. Thinks this is just going to mosey about. Expects it will trade back to $94.50. This is going to be a beneficiary of higher valuations and higher stock prices as the US$ goes up.

The medium term concern is that they have to make a transition to making money from not just one device. They will face margin compression. The stock is not expensive. They have a rock solid balance sheet.

Holding 10% in a portfolio. Cash out? 10% is pushing it in terms of concentration. He would prefer about half of that in a 20-stock portfolio, and would recommend taking a little off the table.

Likes this at the current valuation. He had been a bear on it ever since the watch came out. Apple has been given 2 gifts. Samsung Galaxy 7 was a really strong product, and would have been tough competition for iPhone 7, an evolutionary, not revolutionary product for Apple. When Samsung’s phones started catching fire, that was it for them. The 2^nd gift was president elect Trump. If he is able to open up a tax holiday, where companies can repatriate their offshore cash, that is going to be a home run for this company. They have $236 billion in cash, with about 90% of it held offshore. 2017 will be the 10^th anniversary that the initial iPhone was produced, so expect a huge product from this company at that time.