Apple Inc (AAPL)

AAPL-Q vs. GOOGL-Q vs. AMZN-Q. He likes these two as well as AMZN-Q. You could make a case for all three. He owns all three. These guys are changing the world. AAPL has not had an announcement for a while, but will have announcements in the next year. They could pull back a bit, but he would own all three.

(A Top Pick March 9/16. Up 56%.) Closed at $153.18, and his model price is $182.71, a 20% upside. A year from now, he is expecting it to be $198, a 30% upside.

This has confounded him for this last year. The Apple ecosystem is phenomenally strong, but found it interesting in the last quarter that Chinese sales are actually declining in their ecosystem. His photos are confusing, he can’t find them, and sometimes they’re on somebody else’s phone. He is in a real neutral position right now.

The stock has been doing quite well even though their revenues are only growing at single digits. They have always traded at a low multiple because of a narrow product line. In the last quarter they said 20% of their profits are from Apple app store, Apple music and Apple iCloud, which are all high margin. They think it can double in the next three years. That would justify a higher multiple that you are seeing now.

He still likes this despite its run up. It has a 4% position in the S&P 500 and is up 25%, and probably a 15% position in the NASDAQ. Has been a major driver of indices and performance year-to-date. The story is still attractive. You are getting the 10^th anniversary of the iPhone in September, which should be a blockbuster product. By this time next year, with the new iPhone coming out, it has very low hurdle rates to jump over. Also, starting to ramp up their services business, which is very important for future growth. If and when Trump and the Republicans are able to pass through tax reform, this company has $250 billion of cash, whereby 95% of that is sitting overseas. If they were able to repatriate that cash and give it to shareholders, that would be a good thing.

Not as bullish on this company as most people. They are so big, and it is hard for them to continue to get a good return on invested capital. Pretty much a one product company. All these things make him a little nervous. Also, it is not super cheap.

You are looking at a product cycle, so the next iPhone iteration will be in September. The stock has had a great run. Statistically, there is a meaningful difference in the performance of the stock leading up to the release of a new product, and the 3 months following. A lot of the money has already been made on this.

This company is doing everything right. He doesn’t own this, because 60% of earnings is because of the iPhone. If someone else comes out with a better mouse trap, it will have an impact. The valuation is not stretched.

This breached $800 billion in market cap making it the largest stock ever. He likes to think he can buy a stock that will double his money in 5 years, and he can’t imagine this one will double in size in the next 5 years. Has a hard time getting excited about this.

This just hit an all-time high. Technically, you have to love this. Strong upward trend and outperforming the market. On a seasonal basis, it tends to move higher this time of year in anticipation of the September launches they always have. However, it does take a pause in May, June and early July. It doesn’t go down, it just kind of sits there for a while.

An inexpensive technology stock. Wishes they would pay more of a dividend, simply because they have so much cash. The trouble is, a lot of earnings come from one product. That product can continue to grow, and is a very high margin product for them. Their service area is growing as well. Have a lot of cash, and they buy back a lot of shares. There is a good upgrade cycle on the phone. Their services business is additive, but not great. If they were allowed to bring their overseas cash back to the US, that would substantially help them out because they could buy back more of their shares.

A myriad of multinational companies with off shore cash would be huge beneficiaries of the opportunity to repatriate cash. He does not view Apple as a tech company, but as a consumer discretionary company. This is one of highest weights on the NASDAQ. There is probably room for continued dividend growth. It would be a beneficiary of more relaxed regulatory action in the US.

Loves this company. Has always been a big believer in the services side and was never too concerned about the fancy phone releases. The services side is going to be the real driver. Longer-term, we are probably looking at a $50 billion a year revenue line, just from the services side.

(A Top Pick Dec 23/16. Up 23%.) This has been a great buy. Has reduced his holdings, because the catalysts he was looking for hasn’t happened yet. Two of them were related tax reforms, particularly the possible repeat duration of offshore funds. He is also hearing of delays of iPhone 8. He still likes this. Still at a reasonable valuation.

Has a target price of about $168. The dividend will go up. Their new product seems to be taking hold. This is not expensive, trading at about 15X.