Apple Inc (AAPL)

Reporting after the close tonight, and is either going to be up a bunch or down a bunch. He likes the company and would buy it. The last 2 iPhone cycles have been modest. The next one coming for iPhone 8 is going to be massive. This stock is relatively low priced compared to a lot of the other sexy technology stocks. The outlook for this is just fine. Has a $180 target price.

Just reported and looks like they had a pretty decent quarter. He would caution that on a very long-term perspective, leaders eventually always get toppled. This one probably has a more sustainable handset model than any of the previous leaders. Sales climbed like crazy for many years, but are basically flat lining now. They will be under margin pressure because they’ve filled the market with their high-priced phones, but the broader population in the emerging markets can’t afford an iPhone. He sees Android taking a bigger and bigger market share. He would be cautious.

What Call Options would you use? The easiest way is to buy the option that is closest to the current price of the underlying stock. It is currently at $149.56, so he would look at a $150 Call. A $150 Call is the option that is considered to be “at the money”, because the Strike price is basically at where the stock price is. The “at the money” options tend to act most like an options contract, so you will get the bang on the upside and the hedge a bit on the downside. It is the most liquid option of the basket that you could look at. If you want to get a little more sophisticated, try and ascertain in your mind what kind of move you think is reasonable for the company based on your forecast for what the iPhone 8 is going to do for the company.

(A Top Pick April 14/16. Up 32.48%.) The stock is on a roll. It just had a nice little correction.

The iPhone 8 is going to be a major upgrade cycle. A lot of people are holding off for this upgrade, as opposed to the iPhone 7. The stock had a nice pullback and they are going to report earnings in 2 weeks, but what really matters is their guidance going forward in September. It closed at $145.06, and he has a model price of $184.61, a 27% upside. Dividend yield of 1.7%. (Analysts’ price target is $164.)

This has a product cycle coming up in September. Ahead of that, you are likely to see some kind of pre-positioning. Also, there has been a pretty sharp break, and you have to fill that gap before you can make new headway. It might be time to move on to something else. Healthcare has been pretty good right now. There are a lot of good drivers, but he would be a bit careful.

Sold his holdings a few weeks ago. June was a pretty volatile month. Expects technology is going to come back to its trend.

A good example of a growth stock, but also a “value” stock. He looks at valuation, price momentum and volatility, and the stock has it all. It still has really good valuation.

A stock that, subject to your view of the market and your price parameters, you could own. You know for certain that this company is going to continue to be an innovator in a number of different areas.

People have been saying that the Apple phone is going to fail for as long as he can remember. This has done very, very well for his clients. He has trimmed his holdings 8 times. A 3^rd of their market capitalization is in cash. The iPhone 8 is the 10^th anniversary of the iPhone. They are putting a lot of money behind R&D, and he thinks there are some good things that are going to come out. There is a 93% loyalty rate amongst Apple buyers.

He owned it on and off over the last couple of years but it had a good run. What is their next trick? The question is what’s next and he does not have a good handle on what that is. They have this huge loyal user base and he thinks there is a huge opportunity with APPs. They need to be better at capturing services revenue. He prefers GOOG-Q. If AAPL-Q pulled back 10-15%, it would be a lot more palatable.

The next iPhone is part of the run up as part of their off shore cash that may be repatriated if Trump comes through. It would be a one-time boost to the balance sheet. She would prefer to see more avenues of growth. Basically phones are just replacement demand. She is not sold as a growth story.

About to go through a huge, huge upgrade cycle. Trading at about 16X forward earnings, which he feels is too low. They continue to be very innovative. The company’s strength is also its weakness. Its biggest weakness right now is Siri and the artificial intelligence. It’s very advanced artificial intelligence, but its ability to learn through machine learning is being retarded by having a closed ecosystem. Dividend yield of 1.7%. (Analysts’ price target is $161.50.)

He would not be a buyer here. It is right at the top of its range. A lot has been priced into them being able to repatriate cash from overseas if there is tax reform, but as the administration continues to get distracted, he thinks this gets pushed out. He also has questions about their innovation. A lot has been priced into their next version of the iPhone, and they are going to have to sell a lot of iPhones very quickly to justify it. In other areas, they seem to be falling flat.

The stock is up about 55% or so over the last 52 weeks. We have to accept that this is a different company than what it was. Growth is going to become more challenging, which means it is going to go through periods where the stock doesn’t do much. He really likes their recent move. They are back to innovating. They continue to trap you into their ecosystem every time they come out with a new service or product. The stock is only trading at 17X.