Apple Inc (AAPL)

An amazing world leading company, and even more amazing since Steve Jobs is no longer there. This company meets all his criteria. Great free cash flow and not an overly expensive valuation. However, about half the profits are the iPhone. There is always a risk to that. Does the next product suddenly become the cool thing to own? That would cause this stock to take a big hit. He thinks there is too much risk. It is more of a consumer products company and less of a technology company. Prefers things that have not done very well, but which he thinks will do well.

Any particular FAANG stock you would buy? He would go with this one. It has a below market valuation, trading at about 15.5X earnings. They are on the cusp of releasing the latest edition of their iPhones, which could generate billions of dollars of new sales. They could be a huge beneficiary of tax reform out of Washington, because they have that hoard of cash overseas, which they could repatriate at perhaps a very low cost.

September 12 will be the big announcement. As a user, he had been a little soured, but everything is fine now. He is finding the TV experience good, and is looking forward to the new phone. Wait until September 12.

A very well-run company. A very strong branded franchise, but not as cheap as it used to be. The question is, are they going to be able to continue to innovate and have people continuing to refresh their iPhones. The risk on a hardware company is that at some point there could be new technology or a new provider with something new and different. Because of this, he always prefers service type businesses. This company is now building up their service business.

hey come out with new products in the September/October timeframe and the stock moves up in anticipation. Traders tend to sell on news. We are on the upside and probably okay until they launch their product, then you should take profits.

It had a positive trend. The gap is $155 and that was previous resistance. There is a level of support below the market. If it breaks below that the next level of support is $140 and then $130 so there is potential downside. The headlines regarding the upcoming launch are supporting it. That event is very seasonal in nature. It should dip, selling on the news, in mid-September. Then we have to see what the sales are on this new product.

The challenge is the law of large numbers. How can you continue to grow at the right component where the market has priced earnings growth moving forward? People talk about the extra cash, but if they could do something about the cash they would have done it. A lot of it is invested in tier 1 bank capital, propping up a lot of the banking system. Until there is a next product, they have to find upgrade cycles.

(A Top Pick Sept 15/16. Up 41.26%.) He still likes this. Not expensive, trading at 15X earnings. It all depends over the next several months on how they execute on their new iPhone. Have lots of cash, so there is a lot of opportunity for them to do capital allocation.

Thinks this is going to spend its time at this price until the new iPhone comes out. He thinks this goes to $212. Dividend yield of 1.6%. (Analysts price target is $175.)

Reporting after the close tonight, and is either going to be up a bunch or down a bunch. He likes the company and would buy it. The last 2 iPhone cycles have been modest. The next one coming for iPhone 8 is going to be massive. This stock is relatively low priced compared to a lot of the other sexy technology stocks. The outlook for this is just fine. Has a $180 target price.

Just reported and looks like they had a pretty decent quarter. He would caution that on a very long-term perspective, leaders eventually always get toppled. This one probably has a more sustainable handset model than any of the previous leaders. Sales climbed like crazy for many years, but are basically flat lining now. They will be under margin pressure because they’ve filled the market with their high-priced phones, but the broader population in the emerging markets can’t afford an iPhone. He sees Android taking a bigger and bigger market share. He would be cautious.

What Call Options would you use? The easiest way is to buy the option that is closest to the current price of the underlying stock. It is currently at $149.56, so he would look at a $150 Call. A $150 Call is the option that is considered to be “at the money”, because the Strike price is basically at where the stock price is. The “at the money” options tend to act most like an options contract, so you will get the bang on the upside and the hedge a bit on the downside. It is the most liquid option of the basket that you could look at. If you want to get a little more sophisticated, try and ascertain in your mind what kind of move you think is reasonable for the company based on your forecast for what the iPhone 8 is going to do for the company.

(A Top Pick April 14/16. Up 32.48%.) The stock is on a roll. It just had a nice little correction.

The iPhone 8 is going to be a major upgrade cycle. A lot of people are holding off for this upgrade, as opposed to the iPhone 7. The stock had a nice pullback and they are going to report earnings in 2 weeks, but what really matters is their guidance going forward in September. It closed at $145.06, and he has a model price of $184.61, a 27% upside. Dividend yield of 1.7%. (Analysts’ price target is $164.)

This has a product cycle coming up in September. Ahead of that, you are likely to see some kind of pre-positioning. Also, there has been a pretty sharp break, and you have to fill that gap before you can make new headway. It might be time to move on to something else. Healthcare has been pretty good right now. There are a lot of good drivers, but he would be a bit careful.