UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH)

She averaged down and bought at $273 in May. Stock's been under a lot of pressure. Largest US healthcare manager, with strong vertical integration. Guidance cut, EPS outlook dropped. Under 11x forward PE despite 13-16% long-term target EPS growth. Sees ~25% upside from here.

It could be a long turnaround, though the CEO is the person who can turn it around. You need fortitude to be in this.

Really tough situation. When an insurance company falls on hard times, it's so difficult to analyze. How pervasive are the problems? Historically, quite a strong compounder. Lots of political pressure on insurance reimbursement. Steer clear for now.

Time will tell is they recover or not from the recent slide (shares fell by half). Their medical cost ratios have risen and we'll see if they maintain a higher level. There were fewer medical procedures during Covid, but has since increased, but also has pushed up costs for the insurers. But some issues may be temporary, including Medicare and Medicaid rates.

It is one of the most integrated companies in U.S. health care. They thought it was very oversold so they doubled down on their position and will trend back. She is looking for 13 to 16% long term upside but doesn't consider it a buy and hold. Should be a high quality compounder.

Despite being -39% this year, she is holding on and even buying more. UNH has fixable problems, being structural changes, starting with better Medicare/Medicaid reimbursement.

He bought it back and bought more today. Steady management. They made a mistake underwriting Humana. V28 is behind them. They will have a kitchen sink quarter and you can count on the guidance. It will rally.

There has been concern over paying nursing homes to not send patients to hospitals. He is not sure if this true but it raises caution. There is also concern over the U.S. trying to not pay claims. The U.S. administration is going after costs in health care and profits in PDM. There is likely more bad news coming out. After three years it should probably be OK.

Medicare patient costs went through the roof. Disappointing profits, withdrew financial guidance (which scared Wall Street to death). WSJ article commented that aggressive business practices made it vulnerable to regulatory scrutiny. Medicare and Medicaid changes could mean lower revenues and higher costs. 

Won't rebound anytime soon, especially with the big beautiful tax bill. Will probably go sideways.

Under lots of pressure. He's bought in recent weeks. Rare miss on Q1, lowered guidance. Medical loss ratios expected to be elevated for a few quarters; should recoup when premiums reprice in 2026. Recent CEO departure rattled investors further. Unconfirmed story of DOJ investigation for Medicare fraud. 

Brand tarnished, but not irreparably. Not an immediate fix, but worth the wait. Long-term sustainable growth rate of 13-16%, trading at 12-13x PE. Market's overreacted, shares undervalued. Largest healthcare company in US. Healthcare sector is secularly advantaged by demographics and morbidity trends.

There was a lot of insider buying today, so why would their execs buy if they felt they would have a problem with the US Justice Dept? But he isn't happy with this stock, down 50% in the last month. Sell on this strength.

A few weeks ago they warned they wouldn't meet their numbers. Today, they said they wouldn't meet their guidance. US insurance is changing with regulatory policy demands and medical loss ratios are staying high as people are using their plans more and more as an echo of Covid. The problem is UNH's concentration in the Medicare/Medicaid space

Historical bastion of consistency. Last quarter it became inconsistent, with a 12% guidance down on EPS because utilization rates went up (they were unable, for some reason, to calculate this accurately). Just a small improvement in these metrics will boost the stock. 20 years of excellent execution, so this hiccup is a great time to buy. Yield is 2.2%.

Major leader in the Medicare space. Recent rare miss on earnings, and he sold just before. Shares now well below 200-day MA, which is starting to trend down a little bit. Earnings growth rate now 6-7% going forward, at 14x forward PE.

Very oversold, around 25 RSI. At some point, shares will bottom and move higher. Be careful, shares seem to be in freefall right now. Doesn't see any major support levels. Wait for an opportunity, once it starts swinging up for real.

Good entry point for long-term hold; potential generational buying opportunity. Reason for the drop is that they were classifying clinic patients as less sick than they actually were. Resulted in recouping less revenue, to the tune of ~$500 per month per patient, amounting to ~$3+B. Keep an eye on how quickly this amount is recovered. Yield is 2.1%.

Be mindful that this doesn't turn into a bigger problem of something fundamentally changing in the ever-evolving US healthcare system. Facts could change.