Gordon Reid UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH-N DON'T BUY May 13, 2025

He bought it back and bought more today. Steady management. They made a mistake underwriting Humana. V28 is behind them. They will have a kitchen sink quarter and you can count on the guidance. It will rally.

It is one of the most integrated companies in U.S. health care. They thought it was very oversold so they doubled down on their position and will trend back. She is looking for 13 to 16% long term upside but doesn't consider it a buy and hold. Should be a high quality compounder.

Despite being -39% this year, she is holding on and even buying more. UNH has fixable problems, being structural changes, starting with better Medicare/Medicaid reimbursement.

Time will tell is they recover or not from the recent slide (shares fell by half). Their medical cost ratios have risen and we'll see if they maintain a higher level. There were fewer medical procedures during Covid, but has since increased, but also has pushed up costs for the insurers. But some issues may be temporary, including Medicare and Medicaid rates.

Really tough situation. When an insurance company falls on hard times, it's so difficult to analyze. How pervasive are the problems? Historically, quite a strong compounder. Lots of political pressure on insurance reimbursement. Steer clear for now.

It could be a long turnaround, though the CEO is the person who can turn it around. You need fortitude to be in this.

She averaged down and bought at $273 in May. Stock's been under a lot of pressure. Largest US healthcare manager, with strong vertical integration. Guidance cut, EPS outlook dropped. Under 11x forward PE despite 13-16% long-term target EPS growth. Sees ~25% upside from here.

It has had issues and it has been a tough year facing several challenges. Owns it in the global equity fund. He is waiting for the conference call tomorrow which should talk about how the issues are being dealt with. They have pulled their guidance on EPS and the new CEO could be putting out a new guidance level. Wait for the base line to grow but there is long term upside.

Nothing is too big to fail, but UNH is so integrated into the US healthcare system that they are an essential service. Problem is more people are getting utilization in areas that are higher cost. So, their estimates got blown out. Has long owned this. He recommended it for its multiyear consistent earnings. They just reported and are guiding resumption of growth in 2026. Is at a 35% discount to its 3-year forward earnings. He was buying this morning on their earnings call.

Numbers are fantastic, nothing wrong there. Potential fraud, being investigated. You can't quantify something like that. When he doesn't know, he has to step aside. There's already enough risk in the stock market when you buy the "perfect" company, and it can still go down 10%. He's willing to miss a bit of any upside and wait for a resolution to the story.