UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH)

They report Tuesday. Are the only health insurer that regularly beats earnings. Good risk/reward.

He started sell this in early 2023. Is up 20% since Q2, though. He sold it because loss ratios were off, though stabilizing now. 

Is a reliable compounder who always beat and raise, with reliable earnings growth. Solid. They raised their dividend 12%. Good upside to come.

They recovered from a cyber attack. Earnings are growing. Their HMO (Health maintenance organization) is the best in the business. It's a safe play in healthcare.

Provides benefits to 53M members globally. Recent spike lately, but still sees more profits ahead. Upside to target of about 20%. Last earnings report better than expected. Under a Trump presidency, could see reduced regulation and improved reimbursement. Yield is 1.49%.

Averaged 9% annual upside over last 3 years, and 16% for the last 5. Fundamentally a 9/10.

It reports tomorrow and health stocks are all way too volatile in an election year.

They report next week. The big question is Medicare reimbursements; political winds are pushing down on this. Is UNH off-setting this with prices and costs? At 17x forward PE, he'll take the chance.

They're big enough to set prices, but they face government headwinds, so this is a wild card.

Won't buy it ahead of time. They've beaten the last 6 quarters and expects it again. But given its headwinds, he'd be cautious buying pullbacks.

He used to own it and likes it long term. But the government requirements are shifting the risk in Medicaid and Medicare payments to doctors. If doctors spend more on a patient, then doctors must eat that loss and don't receive all the Medicare/Medicaid to cover that amount. This has hurt companies like Humana. But UNH has such a dominant position in the market and is a permanent compounder.

Is down 7% this year, but was upgraded today and their pharmacy business is up 12%. In election years, healthcare struggles, and UNH has recovered from February's cyber attack. He likes this as a second-half 2024 and 2025 play. It's an earnings compounder.

Will continue to own shares. Short term pressures not a concern. Investors should take a long term view. Deferred procedures have started to increase after Covid-19. Profits continue to increase as demand for healthcare rises. Aging population also good for the business. 

Company not performing as well as other options in the market. Political risk in business - could have exposure to US Federal election. Would not recommend investing at this time. 

Rebounded strongly from lows. Q1 results calmed fears, back into growth mode. Biggest growth area is Medicare, which is for seniors, paid for by government. Moving into a stronger pricing environment for Medicare. Trading at 17x for 15% earnings growth over next 3-4 years. Yield is 1.4%.

Will gain market share over time. It's a scale game. The lower-cost producers will win at the end of the day.