iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

In his aggressive strategy. Doing nothing, struggling. In a longer-term base. He'd buy it for his conservative strategy if it broke out. If breaks below $92 and stays for a few days, he'll sell. His position is only 2%.

It is near its support zone so he has it as a potential trade in their aggressive account. He has a tight stop at $91.75 so if it goes below that for three or more days then he will sell at a 2 or 3% loss. The idea is that in the long term bonds will go up.

Has sold shares. Technical resistance around $100 suggested a sale. Might buying again around $95. 

When you buy any bond fund or ETF, you have persistent rate risk. Very different from buying a bond that matures. If you want to take advantage of falling yields, you have to own long-term bonds that don't mature for a long, long time. So if interest rates fall, you get the advantage of that.

For a bet on falling interest rates, long bonds are the way to do it. ZFL contains long-term federal government bonds in Canada. In the US, use TLT. Best bang for your buck, but highly volatile and highly risky. Long bonds right now are facing a tremendous wall of supply, and he's not sure they're going to fall that much in price. He's quite cautious on long bonds right now.

TLT, he believes, is a leveraged play on the bond market and he wouldn't do that. 

When and if the Feds ease, bonds will move. Fell like a brick when rates went up, now in a period of easing in Canada and potential easing in US. Won't happen overnight, but a relatively safe trade, and you'll earn a bit of interest as you wait.

Chart shows a symmetrical triangle -- higher lows, but lower highs. A consolidation. When it breaks out, will almost certainly be to the upside, especially after a mega-downtrend. And you'll probably get a good move, which may take a year or just 3 months.

Tends to go in the opposite direction of interest rates. As treasury yields go up it tends to go down, and vice versa. When Fed started to talk about pivoting, had a nice run. Since January, Fed's been walking all that back with its "higher for longer" and reducing rate cuts to one, so TLT's come off a bit. 

Encouraging that it's started to pick up in last few weeks. Looking around the world, seems that rates are not going higher anytime soon. Another factor is how aggressively will Fed cut? Cut once or twice and stop, or keep going?

If the US Fed doesn't cut rates until 2025, then sell this now. Inflation won't fall to 2% in a straight line, and he expects a delay in cuts.

He's not bullish on 20-year bonds, ever. And he doesn't like ETFs to start with. If you want to speculate on interest rates falling, then this is a good ETF to buy. But he thinks you're better served with investments of 5 years and under, where there's better rate of return potential with less chance of loss.

If we had a recession tomorrow and rates went to 0%, this ETF would rally substantially.

Long bonds like this one have been in steep decline, some 40-50%, from the moment that rates started to increase. Fortress-like, ultra-long-term bonds that you expect to be the ballast in your portfolio. Yields are a bit higher than before, but we're still talking 3-4%. On such a price decline, it's cold comfort.

Owns shares, but has trimmed in $170 range. Higher interest rates tough on bonds. Good hedge for people who think recession on horizon. Would recommend for a small portion of portfolio. 

Is priced in US dollars. The long bonds have been getting smoked, but the cheaper they get, they better. His return is roughly even, considering the exchange rate.

Considering his three top picks: he will equal eight them on Dec. 31 to rebalance his portfolio. Will hold USD in TLT and PHYS.

It is down over 9% so far this year but if interest rates come down you should see some lift. Has about a 4% yield.

He's recommended this before and he's negative on this, but he is not leveraged. But he collects a nice coupon in USD each month. The key is to rebalance your portfolio once a year, say December, to buy more or less of this.