NASDAQ:TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
Financials 
Technical Analysis 
Sep 12, 2026, 12:00 amThis summary was created by AI, based on 5 opinions in the last 12 months.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has garnered mixed reviews from experts, reflecting the complexities of investing in long-term government bonds amidst rising interest rates. The bond market has been in a challenging bear cycle for the past five years, leading some analysts to suggest a more conservative approach by focusing on shorter durations of 7-10 years instead of the more volatile 20-year horizon. While TLT could be an attractive opportunity at lower prices, there is significant uncertainty, especially if inflation continues to rise, potentially exacerbating the pain for long bond investors. Additionally, the ETF offers a nearly 5% dividend, appealing to high-risk investors with a long-term focus, but there are concerns regarding double-taxation issues for Canadian investors. Overall, timing remains a significant concern surrounding TLT's long-term performance and market positioning.
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Premium contentOur PAST TOP PICK with TLT has triggered its stop at $100. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment loss of 6%, when combined with our previous recommendations.
Premium contentWe reiterate TLT, a low MER defensive ETF holding 20-30 year US treasuries, as a TOP PICK. During periods of market uncertainty this holding will benefit from a strengthening US dollar and a flight to safer assets. We recommend trailing up the stop (from $90) to $100 looking to achieve $130 – upside potential over 20%. Yield 2.6%
Premium contentWe select TLT, a low MER defensive ETF holding 20-30 year US treasuries, as a TOP PICK. During periods of market uncertainty this holding will benefit from a strengthening US dollar and a flight to safer assets. We recommend setting a stop loss at $90 at this time looking to achieve $130 – upside potential over 20%. Yield 2.67%
He thinks we are in a recession already and it will get ugly, though economic numbers and the street's perception is that things are fine. You want to be long USD and long TLT. If deflation and the USD rises in the US, long-term interest rates will crater.
Brian Acker, CAMany seek safety in the bond market, unless you get years like 2022 and 2023 when interest rates rise quickly. Also, a long-dated bond is risky if rates run up like last year. That said, bonds have better return prospects than stocks. If we enter a recession, the more likely there will be rate cuts and the longer the term of the bonds the greater the price impact. Hang on, don't sell, if you already own.
Premium contentOur PAST TOP PICK with TLT has triggered its stop at $100. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. When combined with the previous buy recommendations, this will result in a net investment loss of 3%
It's scary when an equity guy comes on with a bond ETF idea. He's more comfortable with the bond market as a safer bet this year. Interest rate impact will feel its way into the economy at some point this year. Rates will stay higher for longer, but the curve inverts a bit more, and a rally at the longer end of the curve will benefit the bond market. In a weaker environment, that will help. Very safe, very liquid. Great hedge to your portfolio.
John ZechnerHe has no idea whether it will outperform equities in 2023. This is too short a time horizon for him to comment. If you feel that interest rates and inflation are likely to stay low for the next 5-10-15 years, absolutely long-dated government debt will provide you with the best bang for your buck. Canadian investors benefit not only from the price going up if rates and inflation go down, but typically the USD gains against the CAD so you get a boost from the currency translation. You also get an interest payment of 3-4%. For people who don't need the money for 5 years, fixed income still plays an important role in an investment portfolio.
Jason Del VicarioPremium contentPremium contentPremium content
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He's recommended this before and he's negative on this, but he is not leveraged. But he collects a nice coupon in USD each month. The key is to rebalance your portfolio once a year, say December, to buy more or less of this.