
TSE:TECK.B
The only short-term dislocation is the price of met coal. There has been some short term over-capacity or over-inventory in China, which has probably put a Hold on this company. Also, a major producer of zinc and copper. He is positive on both these metals. Dividend yield of over 5%, which he feels is safe. If you see the price turning up, then you can Buy it.
Material stocks have really had a difficult few years. A bigger problem is that in a lot of the markets, this cycle has had a reply response. It is not so much that the global economy is dead, but there has been enough of a reply response. It is very important to watch in each material company, what they produce and how much. This company has a very large exposure to coke and coal which has not been very good shape. The outlook does not look good for the next couple of years.
Stock has been hammered, perhaps with some justification. It is much more a metallurgical coal company now than it was in the past. Just did some contracts on met coal at about $116-$118 a ton, which is very, very low. The fear is that with a slowdown in China, there is not going to be the demand for met coal. That is a very short term point of view. In the long-term, we are going to see better markets for copper, zinc and met coal. He has been watching this very closely to see where he will jump in on it. This has the potential to be a $30 stock again.
She owns a little bit. Has been taking a bath this week and is almost at the capitulation stage. Feels the dividend is safe. They refinanced their debt so there is nothing coming due for the next few years. They are a low cost producer in the commodities they participate in. She wants to watch the stock price stabilize before buying more. Also, wants to see commodity prices stabilize as well.
For less income oriented clients. Sticks with it. They produce some of the most demanded commodities in terms of coal and zinc and they will be demanded for some time. Economic fundamentals look solid and should be good for demand. 4+% yield and they are committed to that dividend. Close your eyes for now.
This is probably one of the finest resource/resource companies from a management and spread of resources point of view. The stock is very cheap. If the market rotation carries on, as he expects along with global expansion, he thinks this will pick up. His minimum price target on his FMV calculation is $40, but that is against the background of steadily falling earnings. Doesn’t see a lot of downside risk in the meantime, but would like to see some resource price strength, which he thinks we will get.
Highly leveraged to met coal as well as copper. Fortunately met coal is in a better fundamental position than iron ore, so there is some light at the end of the tunnel. Probably no growth for the next 3 years. Fort Hills is where they are spending significant amounts of capital, and which probably absorbs much of their free cash flow. You'll see copper expansion projects and you will see zinc expand a bit, but the bottom line is that close to 50% of its revenue is from met coal.