Nick Majendie

Market. Last year, Canada was the best performing of all the developed nations in terms of our equity market. This year it is very definitely the other way. The big question is, where do we go from here. He is optimistic on the Canadian market over the next 6-12 months, principally because he is convinced we will see an improvement in oil prices that will help the energy sector. If you adjust for the change in our currency, performance has been just about the same to a Cdn$ investor as the S&P, despite the TSX lagging the S&P 500. Thinks we will see definite signs of the oil market tightening in the 4^th quarter, and can see it hitting $60 in the next 6 months. Some of the numbers in the US are understated, and are constantly being revised. A very critical point was yesterday when Brent demonstrated backwardation for the 1^st time since 2014, which means hedge funds will begin to look at taking long positions if that continues. He likes Canadian bank stocks very much, and is overweight in them. Results have been very good year to date. They are cheap relative to US banks, and represents good value.

He likes this very much. Had very good results in the 2^nd quarter, and is certainly benefiting from the US acquisition. A well diversified bank. Selling at the highest premium to the average PE multiple of the Canadian banks, which it tends to do.

His preferred choice in rails, and his biggest investment in that sector. They have a tendency to outperform their guidance, and thinks they will do it again this year. Very strong cash flow growth. Good operating ratio performance. Because of the free cash flow growth, the dividend keeps constantly being increased.

This has been suffering. Selling at its relative valuation, a discount. A bit of a “show me” stock at the moment. Thinks management has a very good long-term plan, but investors are kind of sceptical in the short term. There are better purchases right now. (See Top Picks.)

Stay with Manulife (MFC-T) or go with Toronto Dominion (TD-T)? Currently prefers banks to the lifecos. Of the 2 major Canadian lifecos, he prefers Sun Life (SLF-T), which has more consistent earnings growth ahead of them. Manulife has just changed CEOs, and thinks the street will wait to look at the execution and changes in strategy in the next while.

He likes this very much. They’ve done a great job in making acquisitions in the US. This is one of the dividend aristocrats of Canada. Thinks they’ve increased dividends 42 years in a row. It is not all that expensive, and is a great, long term investment.

Has been out of favour and is the one pipeline he doesn’t own. In the short term, it has limited growth prospects which will impact the dividend growth potential. On a 1-year basis, it doesn’t look particularly attractive relative to a Pembina Pipeline (PPL-T), an Enbridge (ENB-T) and a Trans Canada (TRP-T).

He likes this very much. This and Bell Canada (BCE-T) would be his top 2 choices in the telecom sector. If you want to stick a stock away for the next 10 years, his choice would be Telus. He takes his hat off for their buildout of the fibre to the home over a five-year timeframe, versus BCE which is over a ten-year timeframe. Currently they have guidance for a 7%-10% annual increase in dividends. When the buildout is finished in 2020-2021, he thinks they’ll be able to renew that 10% a year dividend growth rate.

Generating a lot of free cash flow, buying back stock and increasing the dividend. The revenue growth is somewhat limited at the moment in various segments. Have done an extremely good job on cost savings, and the margins have been expanding for 2 quarters in a row.

Had owned this, but sold it at around $17 earlier this year. He was concerned about oil prices. Investors are really being careful about having good balance sheet companies. If you have some optimism on oil prices as he does, he would probably hold onto this. It has been a little unpopular with institutional investors because of all their acquisitions. There are better stocks around if you want to buy one. Dividend yield of about 4%.

(A Top Pick Sept 21/16. Up 28%.) Just did an equity issue because of a huge backlog of projects, about $2.5 billion. If he had to pick one stock to own over the next number of years, it would be this. They increased their dividend over 10% for the last 8 years, and expects they will continue to do that. The #1 infrastructure stock globally. Dividend yield of 4.1%.

(A Top Pick Sept 21/16. Down 9%.) Out of favour and is not quite sure why. During this time, they did the Spectra merger. Looking at all the major energy companies globally, including infrastructure, this is now the 8^th largest. It is the largest energy infrastructure in the US. Now is a very good time to be picking it up. Dividend yield of 5%, and they have a growth target of 10%-12% a year for the next 8 years. The bulk of their cash flow is covered by long-term contracts.

(A Top Pick Sept 21/16. Up 67%.) Had a tremendous return, and he would continue to own it. The outlook for methanol is excellent, particularly for this company which is on a large expansion program for the next number of years. Their CapX is behind them and they can increase capacity by bringing back one of their Chilean plants on stream, at a very reasonable cost. Generating a tremendous free cash flow and are buying back a lot of stock.

Suncor (SU-T) or Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T)? Both companies, relative to the other stocks in the energy index, have performed pretty well. From this point on, he likes both, and is hard-pressed to tell you which he would choose. Both have very good growth profiles. They are both very good on M&A on an opportunistic basis. Balance sheets have been improving steadily. This one is bringing Fort Hills on stream by the end of this year, which will be a significant contributor to cash flow growth. Because they have both held their ground so well, there are better opportunities in some of the intermediate space, in terms of capital gains.

Suncor (SU-T) or Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T)? Both companies, relative to the other stocks in the energy index, have performed pretty well. From this point on, he likes both, and is hard-pressed to tell you which one he would choose. Both have very good growth profiles. This one has made acquisitions recently. They are both very good on M&A on an opportunistic basis. Their balance sheets have been improving steadily. Because they have both held their ground so well, there are better opportunities in some of the intermediate space, in terms of capital gains.