
TSE:TECK.B
If you want diversified exposure to metals, this is the way to get it. The yield of about 5% is solid. His overall market strategy is pro-cyclical, but excluding the commodity sector. He doesn’t have really strong confidence that we are going to see any sustainable uptrend in metal prices going forward.
Chart shows a large drop from mid-year, and it is not a pretty picture. The good news is that the metals and Mining stocks can actually start to do well from the last part of January right through until April. This could be a good buying opportunity, but you want to wait to see commodities pick up a bit.
In all of the commodities they produce, the prices have gone down, particularly for coal. The question is, is the dividend of 6.25% sustainable with commodity prices this low. When you see a company with a yield of over 5%, the market is probably telling you that the dividend is not sustainable. He doesn’t see commodity prices rising any time soon.
Management is kind of buoyant, recognizing their strengths and the long-term patience that a company has to have. This is the most important company in non-gold metals. Dividend yield of 6.6%, which he thinks is pretty safe. If you own, you have to be patient. The end of the year tends to be a time when some important conferences come up, and this is clearly an important name.
Believes this is selling at reasonably good valuation these days, but it is not necessarily a slam-dunk. The dividend is safe if commodity prices do not deteriorate a whole lot more. If coal prices go below $100, he would be worried about the dividend. Currently this is selling at such a reasonable price, given the scope of their operations, that it could have significant upside from here. Wouldn't be surprised, should there be some recovery in copper, zinc and coal that this could very quickly be a $30 stock again.
Metallurgical coal prices have been weakening. It is at the point where a lot of the producers are not making money and there have been supply cuts announced, but they haven't fully come on stream. This is a low-cost producer in coal as well as copper. Have restructured their balance sheet and have no debt maturing in the next few years. Feels the dividend is sustainable, at least for the next year. At this price and a yield of 3.5%, it is probably an attractive entry point if you are a long-term holder.