Stock Opinions by Philippe Capelle - Stockchase Experts
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Philippe Capelle

On Stockchase since : Sep 2013

VP, Equities at Standard Life Investments

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Stock Opinions by Philippe Capelle - Stockchase Experts

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General Market Comment 

September 3, 2014

TSX Venture. This still has room to run. It is up about 25% over the last year since February 2015, and earnings estimates keep rising. The last estimate is for $1,058 for 2015. The strong US economy is helping the Canadian economy turn around. The weak Cdn$ is helping on the export side. Resource sector is getting paid in US$ meaning the top line is growing as the Cdn$ is weakening. Financial sector is pretty solid as well. He would recommend looking for sustainable and growing dividends within companies.

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TSX Venture. This still has room to run. It is up about 25% over the last year since February 2015, and earnings estimates keep rising. The last estimate is for $1,058 for 2015. The strong US economy is helping the Canadian economy turn around. The weak Cdn$ is helping on the export side. Resource sector is getting paid in US$ meaning the top line is growing as the Cdn$ is weakening. Financial sector is pretty solid as well. He would recommend looking for sustainable and growing dividends within companies.

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Philippe Capell

VP, Equiti, Standard Life Invest...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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BUY
Cameco Corporation(CCO-T) 

September 3, 2014

This is a perennial long-term investment story. They have a corner on one of the best uranium assets globally with low-cost production. Prices have been moving back to the upside of about $32. For the long-term he absolutely likes the story.

integrated mines
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This is a perennial long-term investment story. They have a corner on one of the best uranium assets globally with low-cost production. Prices have been moving back to the upside of about $32. For the long-term he absolutely likes the story.

integrated mines
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Philippe Capell

VP, Equiti, Standard Life Invest...

Price Price
$21.170
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Suncor Energy Inc(SU-T) 

September 3, 2014

Looking for increasing free cash flow generation with their good production growth. Also, thinks the dividend will increase over time. This is a great story to own. An integrated, so they have upstream production as well as the downstream integrated. In the event of volatile oil prices, they make money on the downstream.

integrated oils
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Looking for increasing free cash flow generation with their good production growth. Also, thinks the dividend will increase over time. This is a great story to own. An integrated, so they have upstream production as well as the downstream integrated. In the event of volatile oil prices, they make money on the downstream.

integrated oils
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Philippe Capell

VP, Equiti, Standard Life Invest...

Price Price
$44.110
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Encana Corp(ECA-T) 

September 3, 2014

Have done a great job at streamlining their assets. The PrairieSky IPO was a huge success and they still own a good chunk of it. Have a lot of cash that they are investing. Eventually you want to see good growth on their free cash flow and a good dividend. Not his favourite story within the gas sector.

oil/gas
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Have done a great job at streamlining their assets. The PrairieSky IPO was a huge success and they still own a good chunk of it. Have a lot of cash that they are investing. Eventually you want to see good growth on their free cash flow and a good dividend. Not his favourite story within the gas sector.

oil/gas
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Philippe Capell

VP, Equiti, Standard Life Invest...

Price Price
$25.150
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Hudbay Minerals Inc.(HBM-T) 

September 3, 2014

Hudbay Mining (HBM-T) or Lundin (LUN-T)? He likes zinc. Some of the major mines will be shutting down over the next couple of years so the price has been moving very well on base metals for the last few months. Both companies have exposure, but Lundin has more nickel exposure so he would lean more towards this company for the zinc exposure. This company is also bringing on mines in Peru, and will double or triple production of copper, zinc and gold over the next couple of years. Great management.

precious metals
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Hudbay Mining (HBM-T) or Lundin (LUN-T)? He likes zinc. Some of the major mines will be shutting down over the next couple of years so the price has been moving very well on base metals for the last few months. Both companies have exposure, but Lundin has more nickel exposure so he would lean more towards this company for the zinc exposure. This company is also bringing on mines in Peru, and will double or triple production of copper, zinc and gold over the next couple of years. Great management.

precious metals
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Philippe Capell

VP, Equiti, Standard Life Invest...

Price Price
$11.190
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Lundin Mining Corp.(LUN-T) 

September 3, 2014

Hudbay Mining (HBM-T) or Lundin (LUN-T)? He likes zinc. Some of the major mines will be shutting down over the next couple of years so the price has been moving very well on base metals for the last few months. Both companies have exposure but this company has more nickel exposure so he would lean more towards Hudbay for zinc exposure. Hudbay is also bringing on mines in Peru, and they will double or triple production of copper, zinc and gold over the next couple of years.

metal mines
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Hudbay Mining (HBM-T) or Lundin (LUN-T)? He likes zinc. Some of the major mines will be shutting down over the next couple of years so the price has been moving very well on base metals for the last few months. Both companies have exposure but this company has more nickel exposure so he would lean more towards Hudbay for zinc exposure. Hudbay is also bringing on mines in Peru, and they will double or triple production of copper, zinc and gold over the next couple of years.

metal mines
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Philippe Capell

VP, Equiti, Standard Life Invest...

Price Price
$5.860
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Yamana Gold Inc.(YRI-T) 

September 3, 2014

Production growth is very good over the next few years. Have a number of issues ramping up with new mines in Brazil, but that should already be priced into the stock. Malartic is a great acquisition for both this company and Agnico Eagle. There will be more value over the next couple of months as they explain how they are going to grow production. This will be a big cash flow generator for them. Not his favourite right now as they are having problems hitting production guidance. The Brazil issue is still an overhang. Also, have assets in Argentina which is still a political issue.

precious metals
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Production growth is very good over the next few years. Have a number of issues ramping up with new mines in Brazil, but that should already be priced into the stock. Malartic is a great acquisition for both this company and Agnico Eagle. There will be more value over the next couple of months as they explain how they are going to grow production. This will be a big cash flow generator for them. Not his favourite right now as they are having problems hitting production guidance. The Brazil issue is still an overhang. Also, have assets in Argentina which is still a political issue.

precious metals
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Philippe Capell

VP, Equiti, Standard Life Invest...

Price Price
$8.750
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Talisman Energy(TLM-T) 

September 3, 2014

They have been running on a treadmill. They need to sell assets to fund their CapX program and pay their dividend. They have some good assets and some tough assets and a lot of liabilities. High commodity prices will ensure the dividend. Not a favourite name. Still a lot of risk.

oil/gas
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They have been running on a treadmill. They need to sell assets to fund their CapX program and pay their dividend. They have some good assets and some tough assets and a lot of liabilities. High commodity prices will ensure the dividend. Not a favourite name. Still a lot of risk.

oil/gas
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Philippe Capell

VP, Equiti, Standard Life Invest...

Price Price
$10.900
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Cenovus Energy(CVE-T) 

September 3, 2014

Thinks this stock was punished because of operational issues. There are higher costs at Foster Creek. Thinks this is going to recover. Likes the growth profile as well as the integration with the downstream.

oil/gas
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Thinks this stock was punished because of operational issues. There are higher costs at Foster Creek. Thinks this is going to recover. Likes the growth profile as well as the integration with the downstream.

oil/gas
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Philippe Capell

VP, Equiti, Standard Life Invest...

Price Price
$34.200
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Agrium(AGU-T) 

September 3, 2014

(A Top Pick Sept 12/13. Up 16.12%.) Had been delivering on the retail side extremely well. Second-quarter had stellar results and margins are improving rapidly. The 1.3 billion EBITDA target they have on retail should be raised in the next few months. Some downside on their wholesale due to operational issues. Still a very good story. Price of corn is an issue and farmers’ income is down this year. There is some uncertainty as to where they are going. Once they go through this final leg of CapX over the next 12 months, free cash flow should increase quite a bit and you should see a good dividend increase.

chemicals
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(A Top Pick Sept 12/13. Up 16.12%.) Had been delivering on the retail side extremely well. Second-quarter had stellar results and margins are improving rapidly. The 1.3 billion EBITDA target they have on retail should be raised in the next few months. Some downside on their wholesale due to operational issues. Still a very good story. Price of corn is an issue and farmers’ income is down this year. There is some uncertainty as to where they are going. Once they go through this final leg of CapX over the next 12 months, free cash flow should increase quite a bit and you should see a good dividend increase.

chemicals
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Philippe Capell

VP, Equiti, Standard Life Invest...

Price Price
$102.400
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
Precision Drilling(PD-T) 

September 3, 2014

(A Top Pick Sept 12/13. Up 28.49%.) This is absolutely a “go to” play. There is plenty of room to grow. They’ve won a number of contracts. Pricing and utilization have been moving up. Notwithstanding the volatility in the price of gas and oil, they have been getting market share in the US and in key plays. Taking market share from US competition and smaller players. Yield of 1.78%.

oil/gas field services
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(A Top Pick Sept 12/13. Up 28.49%.) This is absolutely a “go to” play. There is plenty of room to grow. They’ve won a number of contracts. Pricing and utilization have been moving up. Notwithstanding the volatility in the price of gas and oil, they have been getting market share in the US and in key plays. Taking market share from US competition and smaller players. Yield of 1.78%.

oil/gas field services
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Philippe Capell

VP, Equiti, Standard Life Invest...

Price Price
$13.270
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Wheaton Precious Metals(WPM-T) 

September 3, 2014

(A Top Pick Sept 12/13. Up 7.8%.) The price of silver is down $4 since a year ago, so this company has pretty well outperformed the price of silver. They will still have about 20% growth over the next 2 years as they own the silver stream and the gold stream for the mine in Peru. Risk/reward should be to the upside. Dividend of around 1.5%-2%.

metal mines
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(A Top Pick Sept 12/13. Up 7.8%.) The price of silver is down $4 since a year ago, so this company has pretty well outperformed the price of silver. They will still have about 20% growth over the next 2 years as they own the silver stream and the gold stream for the mine in Peru. Risk/reward should be to the upside. Dividend of around 1.5%-2%.

metal mines
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Philippe Capell

VP, Equiti, Standard Life Invest...

Price Price
$26.430
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Baytex Energy Corp(BTE-T) 

September 3, 2014

Very well-run company. They will want to keep growing by buying more assets. Pretty high dividend of around 6%, which is enough to hold investors’ interest. A great story to own. Not cheap, but these stocks are never cheap.

oil/gas
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Very well-run company. They will want to keep growing by buying more assets. Pretty high dividend of around 6%, which is enough to hold investors’ interest. A great story to own. Not cheap, but these stocks are never cheap.

oil/gas
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Philippe Capell

VP, Equiti, Standard Life Invest...

Price Price
$47.840
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY

They do a lot of deals and this is probably a good entry point because they probably won’t do another deal for 6 months. The dividend is safe.

oil/gas
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They do a lot of deals and this is probably a good entry point because they probably won’t do another deal for 6 months. The dividend is safe.

oil/gas
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Philippe Capell

VP, Equiti, Standard Life Invest...

Price Price
$43.170
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT

Roughly half of their production is base metals, zinc and copper, which are doing well. The other half is the met coal, which has been a difficult environment. There has been a lot of supply in coal so prices have been very weak. If you are willing to believe that producers will show some discipline and start cutting production, there should be recovery on the pricing side. Their coal quality is good. Have ventured into the oil sands, which he is not terribly comfortable with. He only owns a small stake.

precious metals
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Roughly half of their production is base metals, zinc and copper, which are doing well. The other half is the met coal, which has been a difficult environment. There has been a lot of supply in coal so prices have been very weak. If you are willing to believe that producers will show some discipline and start cutting production, there should be recovery on the pricing side. Their coal quality is good. Have ventured into the oil sands, which he is not terribly comfortable with. He only owns a small stake.

precious metals
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Philippe Capell

VP, Equiti, Standard Life Invest...

Price Price
$24.360
Owned Owned
Yes

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