
TSE:TECK.B
This has primary exposure to 2 commodities, copper and coal. Unfortunately, they move in the same type of cycles. We have seen a bottoming in both. This company is a great way to play both of those. However, it has had a tremendous move, so he would be cautious. If we start to see some real strength in China, this will be a very leveraged play.
This has been going through the normal process that all mining companies have been going through, focusing on costs, trying to improve the bottom line in a commodity price environment that looks to be lower for longer. Have had to force themselves to operate more efficiently. There has been a good recovery off the bottom recently, but that is not unusual after having such a disastrous fall off. Recently increased their guidance on coal production and shipments, which was positive. Probably fairly valued, so it comes down to how much more can they do to improve the bottom line.
This has gone up because it has been very leveraged to the commodity cycle, and commodities have done a bit better. However, it is a lot more dependent on coal than it used to be. Coal markets are not as in equilibrium as they had been, and have been under pressure lately, which gives him some concern. This is a more aggressive play. He has a little bit of this for some of his more aggressive accounts, but for lesser aggressive accounts, he uses Hudbay Minerals (HBM-T) as an alternative.
This has rallied quite strongly this past year, because it got oversold when it got below $5. When the US$ was weakening, that was positive for commodities. Also, this is involved in an oil sands project with Suncor (SU-T), and with the improvement in energy prices, they are participating in that as well. When there are questions about global growth, this will pull back and that is when she would pick up the stock. Over the long-term, it is a good name to own. They are in copper, iron ore as well as zinc, which is going to have a more favourable demand over the next few years.
He wouldn’t touch this at these levels. It has had a huge run, and is trading at a very, very rich valuation. There is a lot of betting that copper and coal prices are going to recover. Coal prices are not very strong and copper prices are okay, but there is a lot of supply that could potentially come on. Zinc prices are really the good news story in this company, but trading at a very, very rich valuation. The whole metals sector has had a huge “short covering” bounce, and it is a high risk trade at this stage of the game.
The stock has been fantastic, but exceptionally volatile. Made a nice bottom in January below $5, and then had some pretty big moves. He would suggest you take something like a 3rd of what you want, and then game plan how you want to work the other two thirds. On a Relative Strength basis, it ranks really high. He would wait for a big down day. The one thing we get in the summer is low volumes. There is always lots of volatility in July and August.