
TSE:TECK.B
The future for this company is going to be what it is for any resource company. They just happen to be one of the biggest, best and most liquid resource stocks in Canada. Buying this is really a bet on Canada. That is going to take something of a rebound in the developing markets. China has grown from an infrastructure perspective as much is it is going to for a while.
Doesn’t like the stock in here. Had owned it earlier in the year. Met coal still looks like a mess. Copper really hasn’t turned. All their excess cash flow over the next couple of years is going into Fort Hills, which they are not even the operator on. Oil sands is still the worst thing you want to be in. The balance sheet is stretched. They have enough cash to keep going right now. Dividend yield of 1.05%.
We have seen some settlements for Met coal prices that are a bit firmer than people expected. This has gone a long way to pushing TCK.B-T forward. He believes they will be a survivor. They are dependent on the outlook for coal. He prefers HBM-T. They have about 3 years of liquidity left so commodities would have to stay low for a long time for this company to run into trouble.
China is going to continue to slow and it is debatable to say whether the bottom is in in commodities. He has not seen enough to say the long term bottom is in in this stock price. He needs to see a base develop for maybe a year. He would take his money off the table. Maybe cut the position in half and maybe buy back at another low.
They made the most compelling talk for their company at the PDAC show last week. Met Coal markets are rough because of a flood in Australia that caused a run up in coal and then a flood of supply, which has now been used up. They can now complete the Fort Hills project much cheaper than before because of what has happened in the industry. You need to trade commodity stocks for a number of years. Consider it on a pullback and sell if it has another rally.
This has had an absolute killer of a downtrend. Chart shows a little bit of a rounded bottom currently, and that is actually pretty positive. He would look at that is a place to hang your hat on. $6 can be a really important level for it to hold. It really has to catch some momentum before you get some investors, so it is going to be volatile until then.