Suncor Energy Inc (SU.TO)

Their cost of production is at about $25 a barrel, but to go out and build a new facility, you are probably in the $90 a barrel range. They are in a no man’s land where they are producing oil to make some cash, but can’t pay their capital off. You are not going to see expansion of oil sand plants as a result. They’ll probably continue to pay their dividend.

He likes this. When he felt oil was coming back, he bought this and Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) on the large cap side, and bought Whitecap (WCP-T), Raging River (RRX-T) and Spartan (SPE-T) on the small-cap side. Feels that Suncor has been brilliantly run and will do well over a period of time.

This is really good for a long term play. They did a $1 billion note offering, and there is speculation on what they are going to do with that. It has really hampered the movement in the stock. Longer-term there is a lot of growth coming on from their Fort Hills project. If you want to maintain your oil exposure, she would suggest another company such as Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T), which has very high quality assets as well. 3.4% dividend yield.

Thinks Energies are fine. What happened with the energy stocks is that the rebound was less strong than what had been expected. If you are positive on energy, then the stocks are fine. If we can get oil above $50, towards $60, these things will be great.

This is definitely acquisitive at this time. They raised a lot of equity in June, and have assets for sale at about $1-$2 billion. They see acquisitions as a cheaper way to grow. He would be very surprised if they increased the dividend with oil below $60.

(Market Call Minute.) One of the premier world oil plays, but fully valued.

(Market Call Minute.)

One of the premier plays in the Canadian Oil Sands. They took advantage of the downturn by increasing their ownership in Syncrude. This has to be a cornerstone of the energy part of any Canadian portfolio.

This has some of the best assets in Canada. Superb upstream/downstream assets. Very well financed. A strong balance sheet. If any company is positioned to take advantage of the problems inherent in the oil/gas industry, it is this company. Dividend yield of 3.2%.

He can’t say exactly when oil prices are going to make their move higher, but they are unsustainably low down here. It doesn’t mean that they can’t stay low for a while longer, but down here production can’t grow globally eventually, and that is going to come home to roost as demand grows. He likes this because most of its operations are in Canada. US refiners are getting bludgeoned right now because of a unique problem to the US called RINS (?). Dividend yield of 3.19%.

Recently bought this at around $34. He would treat this as a trader. We are not in a directional market for energy. If you looked at this as compared to the price of crude, you would see a pretty good 1 for 1 price trend. Wait to see what OPEC does next month, and just before they pull the trigger, you might want to trade out of it. You might get closer to $40.

They will grow the business 7% for the next 3 years. Oil prices are hard to predict.

Technically the stock is in a trading range, and has actually been underperforming the Toronto market for the last little while, so technically there is nothing to be excited about. Seasonally, the preferred period is from February to May of each year. It also has a brief period of seasonal strength from around the end of July to about the middle of September. The energy stocks that do best during this period are not the oily stocks, but they are the gassy stocks. Natural gas inventories are very high right now, so it may not happen this year.

SU-T is 28% of the index. As oil sells off, people flock to this one. The stock was inflated and now as it rebounds, the risk seeking money will move to other names. They just did a decent quarter based on refining gains.

(A Top Pick July 28/15. Up 8.92%.) He was playing defence on these 3 stock picks, just looking for a way not to get creamed.