
TSE:SU
Thinks that Fort Hills and Hebron are slated to come online next year. All indications are that those are well on track. What gives him a little pause is the outlook for downstream earnings, meaning the refineries. He is a little concerned about builds in diesel and gasoline inventories, and very high refinery runs, which could pressure crack spreads going forward.
He questions if energy prices are going considerably higher. Realistically energy production has become mass manufacturing. When you drill a hole today, you get a 99.8% chance of success. With that, capital is available if a company could hedge its production above the cost. He thinks it is very possible, around the cost of production, to see the price of oil stall out.
They have a massive operation that had to shut down due to wild fires. They raised capital and paid down debt on their balance sheet. Investors don’t understand the potential for free cash flow in the next year. It is quite powerful. It is a good hold here. Management says they could run the business as low as US$30 a barrel.
Great name. High quality. Has been quite negative on the energy space for 4-5 years now. However, this is one that he has recently added to his portfolios. If looking for a conservative way to start legging into energy, this company does that. Unfortunately, with everything that has happened with Fort Mac, they had to shut down projects. However, overall this is a name that is going to give you exposure to oil prices and the recovery that is slowly taking place. Pays a good dividend.
Thinks energy prices have bottomed. They bought a very large Canadian Oil Sands (COS-T) Syncrude asset, and then bought out another interest in this company right at the bottom. Thinks this has been held back because of the Canadian wildfire, but that is temporary and they will get operations back to normal. This has tons of leverage to higher oil prices.