Suncor Energy Inc (SU.TO)

(A Top Pick Nov 22/16. Up 4.17%.) A really solid oil/gas, and he thinks the oil/gas area is a good place to be.

The benchmark in the Canadian energy industry. It is the most integrated having both upstream and downstream, oil sands/conventional. Extremely well-managed. For years and years, this always sold at a discount relative to the group. They have some of the best assets, and are in the best position as well as being the most diversified. If you have long-term faith in the energy industry, this is a stock you want to own.

Has been negative on energy for several years now. The good news is that oil is no longer in free fall and has set a bottom, and is starting to creep back up. However, we are not out of the woods yet. There could be continued pressure in oil prices. This company is a great way to take a conservative step into energy. They are fully integrated, which helps to add some balance to their earnings. Dividend yield of 2.71%. (Analysts’ price target is $47.60.)

Trading at about 7X on an enterprise value to debt adjusted cash flow. He can find companies that have a greater free cash flow profile and cash flow growth profile than a large cap like this. Syncrude, which has actually been a pretty poor performer in terms of reliability, managed to have a 98% reliability in Q3, which is pretty good for them. Comfortable that about 70% of Fort Hills is complete, and that it and Hebron are both expected at the end of 2017.

If you are late into the oil sector, this company with its refining assets is the solid citizen of the pack. You are not going to get a huge lift. The stock has been more sideways and volatile on a week to week basis. That reflects a very high quality, well-managed, good debt ratio oil company. If you are very cautious, this is probably not a bad stock.

A classic way to play a stronger oil market. Fully integrated, exploration all the way up to the pump. Very consistent company. However, at the moment it has the lowest ROC it has ever produced at -1%. If it can return to a 10% ROC, he thinks it is worth in the mid-$50s. Dividend yield of 2.7%. (Analysts’ price target is $46.09.)

The largest oil company in Canada. The growth is going to come next year. There are a couple of projects coming on at the end of 2017. They’ll start to get the cash flow towards the end of next year. Being a large company, it is not going to have the torque that a lot of small companies have. He still thinks there is opportunity in this company. It should protect you in a down market.

This has had a good year, and is the best in class. You really have to have a view on what is going on with energy specifically. They bought Canadian Oil Sands to operate the Syncrude project, and that is going to give them a lot of torque if we get some visibility on where energy is going. He prefers the BMO equal weight oil and gas ETF (ZEO-T), or you can buy XEG which has a 20% weight in this company.

Technically, you have to love the stock. It is in an upward trend, beautiful break out above resistance in the last couple weeks. Outperforming the market. Trading above its 20-day moving average. Momentum indicators are heading north. Technically it looks like it is in very good shape. These types of stocks have a history of doing better from approximately the last week in January right through until approximately the beginning of May.

The dividend is 2.9%. They reported last week very strong earnings. The stock went up about 6%. Today they reported a divestiture of a lubricants business. The stock is fading on a weak energy take. It is a very well balanced and integrated platform. He was surprised how much they got their cash costs down at oil sands properties.

It is really supporting the TSX. As a long term investor, you have to look only at what it looks like going forward. He would not be buying it at this point. Hold it if you have owned it a long time. He is not a big fan of the energy sector. From a seasonal perspective wait until May to think about selling it.

(A Top Pick Jan 16/14. Up 24.34%.) Had a great 2015, and thinks it has normalized versus its senior peer group. He continues to recommend this.

One of the best in the oil patch. He is looking for production growth from 2014 all the way through to 2018. This company has had that every year, almost 12%. The balance sheet is getting to a pretty good level. Expensive, but priced in line with its peers, and cheaper on a 2017 basis.

(A Top Pick June 3/15. Up 10.83%.) If you are going to be in an oil company, be in an integrated one. You have the refining and marketing to help offset exploration and production. 3% yield.

A premier oil company, and has a refining aspect to it as well. Right now we are waiting for prices to either go up or down. He feels pricing is going to go up. If you are late in the oil sector, you could add this one. A well-run company and diversified across a bunch of areas. Has a lot of good properties. A safe way to step into the energy sector.