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Stock Opinions by Alex Ruus

COMMENT
Seasonal factors. It's one factor of many he looks at. It doesn't drive the portfolio much, but it's something to be aware of. Summer, September, October are the weaker months, and then the rest of the year is bullish.
Unknown

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COMMENT
Change tactics from last decade? Over the last decade, main thing was being long tech and e-commerce plays. You just had to buy those companies and sit on them, and those companies did well. In 2021, those stocks were trading at crazy valuations. Now you want to be a stock picker, and not just buy the general market.
Unknown
COMMENT
We're in for several quarters of choppiness? For sure. Especially the US indexes, which are dominated by the tech sector. Canada's a bit different. The tech area's under a bit of pressure, and we're going into a period of economic weakness. Tech does have some industrial aspects to it in terms of cyclicality. Starting to hear rumblings about weakness in AAPL and other enterprise software companies. People have been valuing these companies like they never, ever have troubles, and it's ominous for those sectors.
Unknown
COMMENT
Changing of the guard in tech. For years, AAPL's largely just been focused on enhancing their current position. Has a very good ecosystem. He's been following the industry for 30 years. 30 years ago there were companies that people thought were embedded, and then something came along to upset the apple cart. Today's leader becomes tomorrow's laggard. The PC was the place to be in the 90s. Now handsets are the place to be, and that area's being generally dominated by one company. Within that area, it was Nokia for a while, then it was BlackBerry, and now it's AAPL. Even though AAPL has a slightly stronger embedded position, eventually somebody will trump that. Will it happen in the next 2 years, or not for another 20? As an investor, you have to be watching these things closely.
Unknown
BUY
Super cheap at 2x earnings, forecast 6x next year. In short term, lumber prices under pressure. Economic storm clouds ahead. Entire sector really cheap, but really good balance sheets. Just need stabilization in prices and a hint of an uptick, and these stocks will do well. Allowable cut in BC has gone down, so IFP mainly in Atlantic Canada and Eastern US.
west coast forestry
COMMENT
Some say buy cyclicals when multiple has soared and profit has collapsed. Generally true, but things have gotten so wacky. Canada has 3 world-class lumber companies: IFP, CFP, and WFG. At the bottom of the cycle, they'd be at-worst break even. So he'd argue they should be trading at higher multiples than what they're at.
Unknown
HOLD
Outstanding company for the very long term. Dominant provider of air cargo in Canada. Sector under pressure with economic storm clouds, and increased capacity from more air travel and new players such as AC. Transports in general facing headwinds.
Transportation & Environmental Services
BUY
Pretty attractive here for the long term. Nice and sustainable dividend yield, good assets. Well run. Entire sector under pressure mainly due to rising interest rates, but this is mostly baked in.
electrical utilities
WAIT
Entry level price? He hasn't had a chance to review this morning's earnings news. Do that before jumping in. Well run. Broadly similar to ATD, but owns refining as well and it's excellent. Good job rolling up gas stations and stores. Cheaper than ATD.
merchandising / lodging
COMMENT
Retail in a recession. If you look at companies like ATD and PKI, the biggest part of their business is selling chocolate bars and coffee. Selling fuel is just a way to bring customers in. When the economy is weak, retail is generally under a bit of pressure. But this is a much more stable area than, let's say, a clothing retailer. In a recession, sales and profits will not go down as much as in other sectors.
Unknown
HOLD
Tricky. Decent correction, so he's getting interested. Wealth management acquisitions, overlayed with a brokerage operation that's really cyclical. Fewer IPOs last year has hurt, so profits will be down a lot. Hold here, but something to look at 6-12 months out.
investment companies / funds
DON'T BUY
Did well in pandemic. Not making money, getting punished in this market. E-commerce is growing, but you have to have really low costs of operation. Will probably go lower. One of the leaders, look at it as they become profitable.
Consumer Products
COMMENT
E-commerce malaise. Most of the e-commerce pure plays are not making money. AMZN is the exception. In last year's environment, Wall Street would just throw money at them whenever they wanted. But now, you can only finance if you make money. These stocks are in the penalty box, and will continue to be there for a while.
Unknown
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 06/21, Up 54%) Super company. Still really cheap, nowhere close to potential. Only pays out half its free cashflow. Likely to see triple-digit oil this winter, so things are looking even better. Close to 7% yield.
oil / gas
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 06/21, Down 7%) Great green business. Slow, steady grower. Trades at half the valuation of other independents. Table-pounding buy. Only a matter of time before it goes up or gets bought at a serious premium.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
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