Alex Ruus
Member since: Nov '06
Portfolio Manager at
Arrow Capital Management
Arrow Capital Management
858 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
(A Top Pick Sep 05/18, Down 6%) Trades at 7x earnings. cash easily cover its dividend. it's a growth cyclical stock. The auto space is turning over, but he expects only a mild downturn. Over the next three years, MG will generate cash flow equal to a third of the company. Pays a 3% dividend. Still likes it.
(A Top Pick Sep 05/18, Up 53%) He had to stomach a lot of volatility to hang onto it. He took some losses initially. 18 months ago they went into a leasing venture with an American company that didn't work out. EFN was a favourite short on the market, bottoming around $3. But it's the #1 fleet manager in North America and Australia, a great business which generates a ton of free cash flow. New managers have turned EFN around, fixing the balance sheet.
(A Top Pick Sep 05/18, Down 5%) Has sold some of this. UPS is more resilient than FedEx. Long-term it's a great play on e-commerce--more stuff is getting delivered. It's a short-term trade now--global trade is a little off--but a long-term hold. It's the best company in this industry. Pays over a 3% dividend yield.
Oil stocks have been slaughtered. This is like owning Saudi oil--FRU's cost of production is $5/barrel. So even if oil plunges to $30, it still makes money. These royalty companies are a great investment. Pays a 9% dividend, paying only 60% of free cash flow. A screaming bargain. (Analysts’ price target is $11.55)
A free cash flow machine. He's owned this for many years. It's retired 59% of its shares in the past 13 years. Trades at a PE of 11x. A cheap stock. Its 2% dividend will probably rise 10% next year. His 2020 EPS estimate is $22.89/share with a PE of 11x. (Analysts’ price target is $339.86)
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COMMENT
COMMENT
August 26, 2019
All of Trump's trade rhetoric is negatively effecting world trade, as data shows. The US Fed has changed its tune from six months ago and have now made their first interest rate cut in many years. Expect more cuts and, with Trump tweeting, more volatility. In the next year or two he expects a significant change in the markets from tech, tech, tech. MSFT and Google have good cash flows, but other tech companies have no profits which scares him. All this reminds him of 1999, and he expects a serious rotation in the markets. That's why money managers are nervous--there are some overvalued companies out there. He's picking around beaten-ups stocks. You must be disciplined and not scared in this volatility.
All of Trump's trade rhetoric is negatively effecting world trade, as data shows. The US Fed has changed its tune from six months ago and have now made their first interest rate cut in many years. Expect more cuts and, with Trump tweeting, more volatility. In the next year or two he expects a significant change in the markets from tech, tech, tech. MSFT and Google have good cash flows, but other tech companies have no profits which scares him. All this reminds him of 1999, and he expects a serious rotation in the markets. That's why money managers are nervous--there are some overvalued companies out there. He's picking around beaten-ups stocks. You must be disciplined and not scared in this volatility.
Alex Ruus
Portfolio Manager, Arrow Capital Management
HOLD
HOLD
August 26, 2019
A great company, a tech stock, not retail, with great free cash flow. He likes it long-term, but wouldn't buy until a pullback. It's had a great run in the last five years. Hold it, though growth is slowing a little.
A great company, a tech stock, not retail, with great free cash flow. He likes it long-term, but wouldn't buy until a pullback. It's had a great run in the last five years. Hold it, though growth is slowing a little.
specialty stores
STRONG BUY
STRONG BUY
August 26, 2019
It's finally breaking out after going nowhere for a while. They're doing phase 3 trials now on their drug and should complete the results by December. That's why investors are pushing this stock up. He expects good results and be accretive. A $200 million company worth north of $1 billion. Caveat: biotech stocks are volatile.
It's finally breaking out after going nowhere for a while. They're doing phase 3 trials now on their drug and should complete the results by December. That's why investors are pushing this stock up. He expects good results and be accretive. A $200 million company worth north of $1 billion. Caveat: biotech stocks are volatile.
Consumer Products
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 26, 2019
Excellent up and coming Montreal tech company, generally in Shopify's space. Very well-run and growing at 50%, up 200% since the IPO. But: they aren't making money yet and the valuation is pricey. It's overpriced, but he feels this company is going places.
Excellent up and coming Montreal tech company, generally in Shopify's space. Very well-run and growing at 50%, up 200% since the IPO. But: they aren't making money yet and the valuation is pricey. It's overpriced, but he feels this company is going places.
BUY
BUY
August 26, 2019
They're #2 in Canadian regional planes and growing solidly run by a solid team. They also service Air Canada. CHR has a stable cash flow so the near-7% dividend is safe. A good stock.
They're #2 in Canadian regional planes and growing solidly run by a solid team. They also service Air Canada. CHR has a stable cash flow so the near-7% dividend is safe. A good stock.
Transportation & Environmental Services
BUY
BUY
August 26, 2019
14% dividend safe? Yes, it's safe. The whole energy sector has been annihlated in the past year--so it's a fantastic opportunity to buy now. Investors have given up, so he's been buying energy stocks. Prices are low and so are valuations. Eventually, oil stocks will turn around.
14% dividend safe? Yes, it's safe. The whole energy sector has been annihlated in the past year--so it's a fantastic opportunity to buy now. Investors have given up, so he's been buying energy stocks. Prices are low and so are valuations. Eventually, oil stocks will turn around.
oil/gas
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 26, 2019
electrical/electronic
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 26, 2019
Be careful here. He wouldn't touch it at these prices. No way. It's SO expensive. A great company. PE is around 700x. Only now are they turning profitable. Something like this can fall 50% if they miss earnings.
Be careful here. He wouldn't touch it at these prices. No way. It's SO expensive. A great company. PE is around 700x. Only now are they turning profitable. Something like this can fall 50% if they miss earnings.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 26, 2019
(A Top Pick Sep 05/18, Down 6%) Trades at 7x earnings. cash easily cover its dividend. it's a growth cyclical stock. The auto space is turning over, but he expects only a mild downturn. Over the next three years, MG will generate cash flow equal to a third of the company. Pays a 3% dividend. Still likes it.
(A Top Pick Sep 05/18, Down 6%) Trades at 7x earnings. cash easily cover its dividend. it's a growth cyclical stock. The auto space is turning over, but he expects only a mild downturn. Over the next three years, MG will generate cash flow equal to a third of the company. Pays a 3% dividend. Still likes it.
Automotive
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 26, 2019
(A Top Pick Sep 05/18, Up 53%) He had to stomach a lot of volatility to hang onto it. He took some losses initially. 18 months ago they went into a leasing venture with an American company that didn't work out. EFN was a favourite short on the market, bottoming around $3. But it's the #1 fleet manager in North America and Australia, a great business which generates a ton of free cash flow. New managers have turned EFN around, fixing the balance sheet.
(A Top Pick Sep 05/18, Up 53%) He had to stomach a lot of volatility to hang onto it. He took some losses initially. 18 months ago they went into a leasing venture with an American company that didn't work out. EFN was a favourite short on the market, bottoming around $3. But it's the #1 fleet manager in North America and Australia, a great business which generates a ton of free cash flow. New managers have turned EFN around, fixing the balance sheet.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 26, 2019
(A Top Pick Sep 05/18, Down 5%) Has sold some of this. UPS is more resilient than FedEx. Long-term it's a great play on e-commerce--more stuff is getting delivered. It's a short-term trade now--global trade is a little off--but a long-term hold. It's the best company in this industry. Pays over a 3% dividend yield.
(A Top Pick Sep 05/18, Down 5%) Has sold some of this. UPS is more resilient than FedEx. Long-term it's a great play on e-commerce--more stuff is getting delivered. It's a short-term trade now--global trade is a little off--but a long-term hold. It's the best company in this industry. Pays over a 3% dividend yield.
Transportation
BUY
BUY
August 26, 2019
A blue chip oil stock, one of the biggest oil and gas services company, and they used a lot of high technology. But they've fallen victim to the entire depressed oil space. This is an opportunity now. He knows the oil sector very well, having worked as an engineer at Chevron for years; he prefers smaller-cap stocks for their leverage, but SLB will do well when oil stocks recover.
A blue chip oil stock, one of the biggest oil and gas services company, and they used a lot of high technology. But they've fallen victim to the entire depressed oil space. This is an opportunity now. He knows the oil sector very well, having worked as an engineer at Chevron for years; he prefers smaller-cap stocks for their leverage, but SLB will do well when oil stocks recover.
oil/gas field services
HOLD
HOLD
August 26, 2019
The banks are going sideways with Canadian mortgage worries, but they are soundly run. He disagrees that the banks should be shorted and the downside fears are invalid. That said, he doesn't hold many banks. It's okay to hold this long-term. Not for trading. Expect little stock movement.
The banks are going sideways with Canadian mortgage worries, but they are soundly run. He disagrees that the banks should be shorted and the downside fears are invalid. That said, he doesn't hold many banks. It's okay to hold this long-term. Not for trading. Expect little stock movement.
banks
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 26, 2019
A hot brand that has exceeded his expectations. But the stock is overpriced and he's not convinced this brand is sustainable. The stock is also expensive. US-China trade tensions don't help.
A hot brand that has exceeded his expectations. But the stock is overpriced and he's not convinced this brand is sustainable. The stock is also expensive. US-China trade tensions don't help.
clothing
BUY
BUY
August 26, 2019
It's an enduring brand that has adapted well over the years. It's resilient and will survive a recession. Admires this stock, though it's no longer go-go grower it used to be.
It's an enduring brand that has adapted well over the years. It's resilient and will survive a recession. Admires this stock, though it's no longer go-go grower it used to be.
food services
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