Suncor Energy Inc (SU.TO)

One of the blue-chip names in the industry, and has withheld the storm better than most. Has diversity in their upstream, midstream and downstream assets. If oil goes down, but are still charging the same at the pump, they end up insulating themselves. If uncertain about where oil is heading, this is a good name to own. It isn’t going to have as much torque though, when oil does move up.

In the current environment you want to play safe, with good quality and long term assets. Has a very strong balance sheet and limited downside risk.

It is one of his preferred names in the oil patch. Canada’s largest integrated oil producer. They are at the end of a very capital intensive phase in their company. Fort Hills is coming to fruition. It has long life, high quality reserves that are past the peak of capital spending. He expects that the company will be in capital return to shareholder mode in the year ahead. There could be dividend increases and share buyback to do this.

A good, high quality company. You get a little bit of dividend while you wait. It is certainly not in the best of times at the moment. However, it looks like it is coming out of a bottom on its fundamentals. He sees ROC declining for about 5-6 years, but in the last couple of quarters it has started to rebound from -1% to +1%, which is a great sign. It’s not that expensive.

Buy or Sell?The chart shows that it is a very frustrating stock to own, but a great company. He prefers owning the BMO S&P/TSX Oil & Gas ETF (ZEO-T). Or you could buy the iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Energy ETF (XEG-T), which is 26% Suncor. If you are interested in the energy space and want to make a lot of torque, look at the energy space in the small energy names.

Has never really liked the assets they’ve accumulated. They’ve always been at higher costs. The market likes it though, as it has been one of the best performers out of the Canadian integrateds.

Sell?The predominant period of seasonal strength for the broader energy sector is from about the end of January all the way through to May, the run-up into the summer driving season. Between Jan 12 and April 24 are the optimal dates, 9.25% above the benchmark rate. This has been positive in the past 20 periods. There is also another period of seasonal strength, mid-August to mid-Sept, which is going into hurricane season and maintenance season. This is now just kind of falling out, and the energy is starting to leach out of these energy names. Technically, there is resistance at $44. You might be able to pick this up on the cheap in December, for the big push into the new year. He has been trimming his energy exposure.

Has owned this for some time. Bought it during the financial crisis when people were basically giving away shares of financial companies. It has diversified, being almost more of a money manager than a lifeco. It is growing its life business both in Canada and the US as well as in Asia. Like most financial stocks, this responds to higher interest rates. The 10-year US bond is starting to have strength, which is positive for lifecos. He is positive on this company.

Had owned this for a long time, but recently sold it. A bigger portion of their business is tied to heavy oil. Prefers Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T).

Oil is very cyclical on very long cycles. The last time oil rallied big time was in the 1970s when Japan industrialized. It rallied again when China industrialized. China appears to be done industrializing. The commodity infrastructure has been built globally, up to a point where we can supply the demand for energy. We have had technology changes that have allowed for the shale plays to come. The US mid-continent is loaded with shale oil and companies are able to produce the stuff for sub-$50 a barrel. There are millions and millions of barrels that can be brought on. The other big play that is happening is in the Marsalis shale in Ohio, which is hammering gas and natural gas liquids. Energy is going to be under assault for a long time. On top of that you have shales in other parts of the world and the technology will be transferable. Also, a lot of oil producing countries need money, so you are going to see a lot of oil coming at you. This company, unfortunately, is the high cost oil, the dirtiest oil, at the end of the pipeline. They will survive, because their cash costs are about $25 a barrel. He wouldn’t put his money here for the next 10 years.

Suncor (SU-T) or Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T)? Both companies, relative to the other stocks in the energy index, have performed pretty well. From this point on, he likes both, and is hard-pressed to tell you which he would choose. Both have very good growth profiles. They are both very good on M&A on an opportunistic basis. Balance sheets have been improving steadily. This one is bringing Fort Hills on stream by the end of this year, which will be a significant contributor to cash flow growth. Because they have both held their ground so well, there are better opportunities in some of the intermediate space, in terms of capital gains.

A tough name to own because of volatility. Oil cannot get a break. He is setting up for an oil rally. Prefers renting the space through an ETF. The Suncor story is all about Fort Hills which is 90% complete. They expect to be testing on it and get it up and running in 2018.

If the oil price hit $75 in three years this would be quite positive for it. The dividend is well covered. They had a negative earnings surprise in their July earnings report. Earnings are expected to grow significantly compared to last year. If oil gets above $52 then the game is back on.

Oil. SU-T vs. VET-T. They are getting a well developed trading range. Oil could have $55 on the upside. If oil goes back to the $50s then the sector is quite oversold. SU-T protects you and has held up rather well. But it does not have the same upside as VET-T.

The period of seasonal strength for energy stocks is from January to May of each year. We have now passed the period of seasonal strength for energy, and it has a tendency to either go flat or lower. This is not a time when you want to be an owner. The time for repurchasing the stock would be probably in January.