Suncor Energy Inc (SU.TO)

In spite of lower energy prices, he is still modelling 4% Cash Flow per Share Growth and 8% Production Growth 2017-2019. This company has an awesome balance sheet. However, it is a little expensive, trading at 8.2% 2019 estimates, versus 7.1% the integrated peer average. If you like oil, this is a name you can buy on a pullback.

Not a big fan of commodity and cyclical spaces for energy, oil, gold, metals, minerals. The problem with most of these names, and Suncor specifically, is that it gives and takes away over and over again. He would prefer the ZEL-T ETF.

When it gets to book value just under $28 at present, it is a buy, historically. In 2017 the price of oil was up 7% and this one did very well. Nat gas went down 20%. Mother nature could close their value gap very quickly with a cold winter.

Has this as a core holding. Their margins have stayed pretty healthy on the refined products side. He likes this because it gives you more of a safe, less volatile way to play energy. Pays a great dividend. They should put up anywhere from 5% to 10% growth every year, depending on crude oil prices.

If she were adding from the sector, this would be one of the ones she would be looking at. In the near term, you just don't have to be here given the pricing dynamics in Western Canada. This company is a very good oil sands operator.

ZWB-T vs. SU-T, which to sell. There is nothing wrong with Canadian banks long term. ZWB-T is his preferred way to play it. He got out of it when it retested last year’s resistance. He thinks we will test last year’s lows and then he would be a buyer. SU-T is a bellwether of the market but will underperform a lot of global oil plays. He would trim exposure and then look to buy it 10-15% lower. He would trim both here and look to buy them back.

Doesn’t own. Owns Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T). The two are comparable, two bellwethers in Canada. Suncor is more into refining with production assets that are a little bit higher quality. They’ve been with CNQ-T historically and continues to hold.

It is sitting with good production volumes and they have done very well in refining. Production is improving but there is nowhere for the additional oil to go. If it backs off below $40 then it would be interesting and a table pounding buy at book value. He has nothing against it.

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) or Suncor (SU-T) for a longer outlook for gains? They are almost interchangeable. They are the 2 quality companies in the Canadian oil patch, and the 2 that have been able to purchase assets at good prices, while other companies were down. He owns both, and it is a coin toss as to which would do better in the next couple of years. He would be a buyer of both.

His preferred way to play the energy space right. He likes that they have a very stable balance sheet. At $55-$60 oil, they are cranking out a good amount of cash flow out of the oil sands. They are diversified with downstream operations, which moves out the cash flow profile. They’re returning cash back to shareholders. A good holding.

A great company. They have the Fort Hills coming on, probably the last big project in the oil sands. A free cash flow story. The question is, what do they do with the money. His hope is that they give it back to shareholders in the form of dividends. Dividend yield of 2.9%.

SU-T vs. CNQ-T. SU-T is a great company. With CNQ-T they are the two big guys in the field. He owns neither one but he would lean a little more to CNQ-T because of better valuation. The yield is not as great but they have more potential to bump the dividend up. Unit we get a better energy environment in Canada the growth will be limited.

Just announced they are starting production on their Hebron project off the east coast. Seasonally, this has a period of seasonal strength from approximately mid-Jan right through until May each year. Technically, the stock is getting into gear, but still a little early for a seasonal trade.

The old highs are always bullish and we are now testing a 3^rd high. Expects it will go higher. There are still uncertainties in the oil market. Crude has recovered and is now $57-$58, but you have the American shale producers that have lots of capacity. During uncertainty, you want to buy the strongest company in the sector, and this company is definitely benefiting from that.

Bought this when he thought a pro-growth theme was evolving. The chart shows there was a little resistance but it got through that around the $44 mark. Now you want to see it push higher with strength. The producer, not the crude, will lead on the way up. It should run up to $50 next year before there is any resistance.