Opinions
Nick Majendie
Suncor Energy Inc
SU-T
HOLD
Sep 19, 2017
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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They had lots of debt and operational problems, so were in the penalty box. But this integrated has huge long-life reserves. Cash flow is up and pays over 4% dividend and boasts a 100% shareholder return. Excellent balance sheet. Energy is in seasonal strength now.
(Analysts’ price target is $62.29)He sold off a bunch of energy names, but retained this one. Concerns about global recession is hitting energy names. He's in the camp of too early to think about a recession, and tariffs will look very different 6-12 months from now. If we see there's no recession, things can turn around quickly.
200-day and 200-week MAs still moving higher, a good sign. Right at 200-week MA today, and that can be massive long-term support for most stocks. If you own, don't sell. If wanting to buy, this might be your chance to look at it. Yield is 5%.
He likes the big integrated names, but doesn't own any oil producers now. His team deemed that group as having first-derivative vulnerability to tariffs on volumes and profitability. Premium brand in the space. He's waiting out some of the volatility on the price of oil before getting back in. Nice dividend.
Suncor (SU-T) or Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T)? Both companies, relative to the other stocks in the energy index, have performed pretty well. From this point on, he likes both, and is hard-pressed to tell you which he would choose. Both have very good growth profiles. They are both very good on M&A on an opportunistic basis. Balance sheets have been improving steadily. This one is bringing Fort Hills on stream by the end of this year, which will be a significant contributor to cash flow growth. Because they have both held their ground so well, there are better opportunities in some of the intermediate space, in terms of capital gains.