Suncor Energy Inc (SU.TO)

Not a big fan of energy. Canada is the high cost producer at the end of the pipeline, and this company is at the end of that pipeline. They own assets that have been bankrupt 2 or 3 times in the past, so they don’t have cash depreciation costs on a lot of them. Cost per barrel is in the $20-$25 range, so they are getting cash flow, but they are really not covering depreciation on the plants. He wouldn’t own this.

Buy, Sell or Hold? This has had excellent production growth since 2014. Their major projects remain on track. Their recent earnings were in line. He is modelling 10% production growth 2017-2019. 4% cash flow per share growth. Good balance sheet. The payout ratio for 2017 is about 109%. A blue-chip name in the Canadian oil space.

(A Top Pick Aug 24/16. Up 9.04%.) He considers this to be the benchmark of the Canadian industry. This is still a Buy.

He’s been very light in this space for several years now, and started to add this about a year ago. Although he doesn’t believe oil is going up anytime soon, you want to have some exposure, and this is a conservative way of having some. Dividend yield of 3.4%. (Analysts’ price target is $50.)

(A Top Pick March 2/17. Down 3.67%.) The period of seasonal strength for some of these energy stocks, this one in particular, is from late January all the way through to mid-May. The average gain for that time frame is about 14.6%, and has been positive 75% of the time over the past 20 years. This was probably the only oil/energy stock that was positive over that time frame.

If you want exposure to energy, but don’t want to lose your shirt if oil prices go down, this is the way to do it. Year-to-date oil is down about 10%, and this one is down about 5%. A good way to participate. It is integrated. They are exploring, refining and selling it at the pumps. A conservative way to play energy. Dividend yield of 3%. (Analysts’ price target is $50.)

This closed at $42.32, and he has model price of $57.71, a 36% upside. Has a 3% dividend. The mean estimates for earnings is $1.96.

Canada’s largest oil producer. Solid, solid company. This has done really well over the last year, and is probably going to be in a holding pattern for a while. Relatively expensive compared to other stocks in the sector. Depending on commodity prices, it should gravitate upwards.

He is dramatically underrepresented in the “energy producer” sector, and wants to get money back into oils. The best place to start is in a big cap liquid name that pays a dividend. He is not looking for torque yet, because he can’t quite see the beauty of the recovery, but he wants to have exposure, simply because on a value basis these things are cheap and this is levered to oil, and has actually outperformed oil in its existence. Dividend yield of 3%. (Analysts’ price target is $50.)

There have been a string of mergers and acquisitions in the oil patch, and this company is going to reap the benefit of that. Has a great balance sheet, which they will be using for share buyback and possible dividend increases. They have great growth prospects going forward. Dividend yield of 3.1%. (Analysts’ price target is $49.)

Arguably one of his favourite names in the energy sector. This would be the premium name to go with because of their ability to deliver results and increase cash flows. They have added amounts of cash flow to be coming soon. This is why they announced a $Million share buyback to come soon.

This has been one of the great success stories. BV is $26.76. It got below that in Q1 of 2016. These companies are sitting very leveraged to the price of oil, so while they make money at $30 US oil, the stocks usually gets hit at that price. They have $16 billion in debt against $45 billion of equity, so they’re in pretty good shape. His view is that the stock will back off. If you can buy at under $30, that would be a great buy.

She likes it. Pay attention to free cash flow yield in integrated companies. Current projects will bring in some lumpy growth. She is looking for them to increase dividends and buy back shares. It ranks really well globally.

(Top Pick Mar 22/16, Up 16%) They made that acquisition of COS-T at very low prices. It helps bring down the overall cost of production. Energy stocks got way ahead of the price of crude and that is why they have not done as well so far this year as earlier.

You want to be wary about becoming too aggressive in energy stocks yet. We are seeing supply ramp up again. There was a big drawdown in the price of oil today. If it breaks $52, some of these oil stocks will be hit. This is the time of year for oil stocks. Between January and mid-May, the stock has gained about an average of 14.68%, and has been positive in 75% of the periods over the past 20 years. It did gap higher following its earnings in February by about $41. Dividend yield of 3.07%. (Analysts’ price target is $49.)