Suncor Energy Inc (SU.TO)

A tough name to own because of volatility. Oil cannot get a break. He is setting up for an oil rally. Prefers renting the space through an ETF. The Suncor story is all about Fort Hills which is 90% complete. They expect to be testing on it and get it up and running in 2018.

If the oil price hit $75 in three years this would be quite positive for it. The dividend is well covered. They had a negative earnings surprise in their July earnings report. Earnings are expected to grow significantly compared to last year. If oil gets above $52 then the game is back on.

Oil. SU-T vs. VET-T. They are getting a well developed trading range. Oil could have $55 on the upside. If oil goes back to the $50s then the sector is quite oversold. SU-T protects you and has held up rather well. But it does not have the same upside as VET-T.

The period of seasonal strength for energy stocks is from January to May of each year. We have now passed the period of seasonal strength for energy, and it has a tendency to either go flat or lower. This is not a time when you want to be an owner. The time for repurchasing the stock would be probably in January.

Not a big fan of energy. Canada is the high cost producer at the end of the pipeline, and this company is at the end of that pipeline. They own assets that have been bankrupt 2 or 3 times in the past, so they don’t have cash depreciation costs on a lot of them. Cost per barrel is in the $20-$25 range, so they are getting cash flow, but they are really not covering depreciation on the plants. He wouldn’t own this.

Buy, Sell or Hold? This has had excellent production growth since 2014. Their major projects remain on track. Their recent earnings were in line. He is modelling 10% production growth 2017-2019. 4% cash flow per share growth. Good balance sheet. The payout ratio for 2017 is about 109%. A blue-chip name in the Canadian oil space.

(A Top Pick Aug 24/16. Up 9.04%.) He considers this to be the benchmark of the Canadian industry. This is still a Buy.

He’s been very light in this space for several years now, and started to add this about a year ago. Although he doesn’t believe oil is going up anytime soon, you want to have some exposure, and this is a conservative way of having some. Dividend yield of 3.4%. (Analysts’ price target is $50.)

(A Top Pick March 2/17. Down 3.67%.) The period of seasonal strength for some of these energy stocks, this one in particular, is from late January all the way through to mid-May. The average gain for that time frame is about 14.6%, and has been positive 75% of the time over the past 20 years. This was probably the only oil/energy stock that was positive over that time frame.

If you want exposure to energy, but don’t want to lose your shirt if oil prices go down, this is the way to do it. Year-to-date oil is down about 10%, and this one is down about 5%. A good way to participate. It is integrated. They are exploring, refining and selling it at the pumps. A conservative way to play energy. Dividend yield of 3%. (Analysts’ price target is $50.)

This closed at $42.32, and he has model price of $57.71, a 36% upside. Has a 3% dividend. The mean estimates for earnings is $1.96.

Canada’s largest oil producer. Solid, solid company. This has done really well over the last year, and is probably going to be in a holding pattern for a while. Relatively expensive compared to other stocks in the sector. Depending on commodity prices, it should gravitate upwards.

He is dramatically underrepresented in the “energy producer” sector, and wants to get money back into oils. The best place to start is in a big cap liquid name that pays a dividend. He is not looking for torque yet, because he can’t quite see the beauty of the recovery, but he wants to have exposure, simply because on a value basis these things are cheap and this is levered to oil, and has actually outperformed oil in its existence. Dividend yield of 3%. (Analysts’ price target is $50.)

There have been a string of mergers and acquisitions in the oil patch, and this company is going to reap the benefit of that. Has a great balance sheet, which they will be using for share buyback and possible dividend increases. They have great growth prospects going forward. Dividend yield of 3.1%. (Analysts’ price target is $49.)

Arguably one of his favourite names in the energy sector. This would be the premium name to go with because of their ability to deliver results and increase cash flows. They have added amounts of cash flow to be coming soon. This is why they announced a $Million share buyback to come soon.