Shopify Inc.SHOP.TOBUY ON WEAKNESSMar 29, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Nov 13, 2026. Market Open.
Ad revenues are being hurt with subscribers pulling back. Cutting marketing and staff. Will the economy slow, thereby reducing customers shopping online? Trades ~75x forward PE. It's a domino effect of whether it can keep margins up, which keeps cashflow up, which makes earnings rise. If not, there will be hiccups in a stock priced for perfection.
Secular winner. Omnichannel merchandising in a box, with an actively growing POS business. Merchant solutions (~80% of sales) include add-ons to monthly subscriptions. Great second quarter, sales up in 30% range and earnings ~20%. Guidance calls for more of the same.
Increasingly demonstrating that AI is not a disruptor, but a tool. Lots of FCF, buying back lots of shares. In middle innings of the global e-commerce story. Expensive (as always), ~70x PE. Use the charts to buy in.
Hit earlier in the year on the SaaSpocalypse, which was misguided to some degree. Won't get replaced, very agentic. About 14% of total US e-commerce, major player. Always rich, but now at the low end. Spending hasn't increased, yet cashflow is growing. META Muse announcement has lifted stock recently.
He has it in his growth portfolio. They are the backend for small business commerce. They have about 300,000 small business customers. There are 10 million small businesses in North America. He would not buy the stock today because it has gone parabolic. He would look for a pullback. You can’t really assign a value to them. They are first to market, however. He likes them, but would not run out to buy them right now.