Gerard Ferguson Shopify Inc. SHOP-T COMMENT Feb 07, 2017

No idea if there's more upside. Very expensive. Doesn't have the consistency he looks for. Better opportunities at better prices elsewhere.

AMD vs. Shopify

Prfers SHOP. AMD is fully priced. He targets $125 USD for SHOP. Don't sell AMD, just raise some calls against it.

It is growing at 20% per year but trading at 100X earnings so there is a valuation risk. It is a good company but not so much the stock. It uses different software for different vendors and expanding internationally. It could go sideways or down.

Very high valuation. On any fears of potential slowing, stock moves quite a bit. People probably trade it a lot. Great company, democratizing e-commerce for everybody. Tariffs may impact volumes until we get more clarity.

Still a decent runway to price target of $178, so don't trim. Look to trim if it gets above $170. Because of the volatility, writing some calls would be pretty lucrative.

Pay attention to the old highs (~$200), and stock's getting close to them. Recent peak does appear to be breaking the last one. Probably will get to the $200 area, so still a few bucks to go. From there, that's when to start chewing your nails, as it's stalled there before when those old buyers just want their money back.

A tough one. Lots of speculation in the name. If you look at it with a purely quantitative view, you'd be a bit nervous. Still in the high growth, ramping up operations, risky "startup" phase. Improving ROC. Valuation makes him pause.

Doesn't have a problem owning it, but should not be core. If your portfolio has 20 stocks, 5% each, then this one should only be ~2%. With today's earnings pop, good to trim.

He trimmed a bit. He'd beef up the position again if it dropped 10-15%. One of the companies that will dominate  the world for the next 1-2 decades. 

This type of company is out of his wheelhouse. He looks at cash flow; SHOP's free cash flow is too expensive. SHOP has been growing like gangbusters. He watches it, because it's significant in Canada. The changes in US taxation did not impair SHOP, surprisingly. Their business keeps going very well. Is a momentum name, but growth could slow and the street could focus on its cash flow down the road. The PE is rich.

Has been fantastic. Really good recent quarter. Right-sizing cost structure. Integrating with large-language-model search platforms, and so all searches essentially lead to Shopify. Taking advantage of AI, rather than being overcome by it.