Shopify Inc.SHOP.TOTOP PICKNov 06, 2015Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Nov 13, 2026. Market Open.
Ad revenues are being hurt with subscribers pulling back. Cutting marketing and staff. Will the economy slow, thereby reducing customers shopping online? Trades ~75x forward PE. It's a domino effect of whether it can keep margins up, which keeps cashflow up, which makes earnings rise. If not, there will be hiccups in a stock priced for perfection.
Secular winner. Omnichannel merchandising in a box, with an actively growing POS business. Merchant solutions (~80% of sales) include add-ons to monthly subscriptions. Great second quarter, sales up in 30% range and earnings ~20%. Guidance calls for more of the same.
Increasingly demonstrating that AI is not a disruptor, but a tool. Lots of FCF, buying back lots of shares. In middle innings of the global e-commerce story. Expensive (as always), ~70x PE. Use the charts to buy in.
Hit earlier in the year on the SaaSpocalypse, which was misguided to some degree. Won't get replaced, very agentic. About 14% of total US e-commerce, major player. Always rich, but now at the low end. Spending hasn't increased, yet cashflow is growing. META Muse announcement has lifted stock recently.
He is really focused on growth. This is an e-commerce model for small and medium-sized businesses. They have already sold in 150 countries. If it can work, and it appears that it is, it looks quite good. It could get a lot of momentum on the upside as it grows out. If it executes, it will do very well. The other side is that these things are always being gobbled up by the big guys as things go forward. It doesn’t make money yet, but will do so in another 12 months or so.