Gerald Allaye-Chan PotashCorp POT-T BUY May 29, 2009

He was worried about the fertilizer outlook a year ago. He preferred AGU-T because they were partly retail. In a merger you have one vehicle, but a mishmash of lower dividend and more cyclicality. He does not feel any urgency to come back to the sector.

POT-T and AGU-T amalgamation. Mid-October is the expected merger date. He thinks it is a positive to have them together. These are such big companies that the market has discounted synergies. You will get a lower yield on POT-T after the merger which some may not like. He sees it net sideways from here. He does not like the fertilizer outlook from here. He would rather miss the first 5-10% to see if it trends up.

POT-T & AGU-T. AGU-T was a buy and hold when he was last on. It has been kind of bouncing around. He has always liked the retail part. Also, it is global. The Texan floods could impact AGU-T with a psychological effect on investors. POT-T is starting to perk up in the US and they signed a Chinese contract. He would not sell out just because of the merger.

The acquisition has been delayed. They are picking a new name. They will have to sell some assets. Canadian and Chinese regulatory authorities have approved the acquisition. It will likely close in late Q4 this year. There will be a lack of competition in the potash industry. There is a lot of supply coming on in it.

This whole industry needs consolidation. They are going through the strong and painful process of consolidation, and it is going to take time. Eventually this should work. He wouldn’t be in a rush to buy this.

He is warming up to agriculture a little. With the merger, this will be the “go to” name in the sector. It is a good fit. He is seeing a bit of a bottom in commodity prices. You are not going to get hurt by owning either Potash (POT-T) or Agrium (AGU-T) right now.

He doesn't cover this, but does cover Agrium (AGU-T). Thinks the combined entity will bear fruit for shareholders. This is a market that is fairly depressed and will probably turn up over the next several years. It gives you the cost cutting that will create some shareholder value.

This has been depressed and in a narrow range during 2016-2017. A lot of people were long in 2013-2015. We are beginning to digest the overhead supply, but he would like to see better price action first. Right now, he is neutral at best.

They are merging with AGU-T. There will be $500 Million in synergies. It is the bottom of the cycle for crop nutrients. (Analysts’ target: $24.46).

The merger with Agrium (AGU-T) has been approved. She owns Agrium and likes the merger/acquisition. Just did an Australian acquisition to expand their presence there. Going forward, this is where they are going to focus on a lot of their growth.