Stock Opinions by Michael Simpson, CFA - Stockchase Experts
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Michael Simpson, CFA @

On Stockchase since : Oct 2005

Senior Vice-President at Sentry Investments

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T: 416-861-8729http://www.sentryselect.com/

Michael Simpson, CFA Latest Top Picks...

Stock Opinions by Michael Simpson, CFA - Stockchase Experts

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General Market Comment 

January 17, 2019

Market. It should be a lot better than 2018 this year. No Santa Clause rally – we had the Grinch. He doesn't know if the US shutdown will get resolved in January or February. By the end of February we should know what happens with China trade negotiations. In Canada he thinks interest rates are on hold for at least 6 months. He likes Canadian companies that export to the US. If Saudi and Russia are serious about curtailing supply then oil could break out of $60, otherwise it will be range bound.
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Market. It should be a lot better than 2018 this year. No Santa Clause rally – we had the Grinch. He doesn't know if the US shutdown will get resolved in January or February. By the end of February we should know what happens with China trade negotiations. In Canada he thinks interest rates are on hold for at least 6 months. He likes Canadian companies that export to the US. If Saudi and Russia are serious about curtailing supply then oil could break out of $60, otherwise it will be range bound.
Unknown
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Michael Simpson

Senior Vic, Sentry Investments...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
_N/A

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BUY
Waste Connections(WCN-T) 

January 17, 2019

The third largest waste company in North America. They have great franchises in the western US. They also have an oil service company. They have a good history of dividend increases.
Transportation & Environmental Services
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The third largest waste company in North America. They have great franchises in the western US. They also have an oil service company. They have a good history of dividend increases.
Transportation & Environmental Services
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Michael Simpson

Senior Vic, Sentry Investments...

Price Price
$104.910
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Chorus Aviation Inc(CHR-T) 

January 17, 2019

He had an issue with their agreement with Air Canada being renegotiated but this time it was more beneficial to Chorus. He thinks it will do well.
Transportation & Environmental Services
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He had an issue with their agreement with Air Canada being renegotiated but this time it was more beneficial to Chorus. He thinks it will do well.
Transportation & Environmental Services
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Michael Simpson

Senior Vic, Sentry Investments...

Price Price
$6.790
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
InterRent REIT(IIP.UN-T) 

January 17, 2019

Apartments in Southern Ontario and Montreal. They had a good 2018. The fundamentals for apartments are quite good. There is a lot of immigration into Southern Ontario. 67% payout ratio. Expect dividend increases in coming years. They will not do as well in 2019 as 2018.
property mngmnt/investment
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Apartments in Southern Ontario and Montreal. They had a good 2018. The fundamentals for apartments are quite good. There is a lot of immigration into Southern Ontario. 67% payout ratio. Expect dividend increases in coming years. They will not do as well in 2019 as 2018.
property mngmnt/investment
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Michael Simpson

Senior Vic, Sentry Investments...

Price Price
$13.490
Owned Owned
Yes

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WATCH
Costco Wholesale(COST-Q) 

January 17, 2019

It is a great model because of the annual membership fee. There is not a lot of competition with on-line. The time to buy was December. If it checked back a bit he would add it to portfolios.
department stores
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It is a great model because of the annual membership fee. There is not a lot of competition with on-line. The time to buy was December. If it checked back a bit he would add it to portfolios.
department stores
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Michael Simpson

Senior Vic, Sentry Investments...

Price Price
$211.460
Owned Owned
No

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WATCH
Toronto Dominion(TD-T) 

January 17, 2019

It is the 9th or 10th largest bank in the US. They are more retail focused in the US. They have a stake in Ameritrade. Earnings coming up should be fairly robust.
banks
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It is the 9th or 10th largest bank in the US. They are more retail focused in the US. They have a stake in Ameritrade. Earnings coming up should be fairly robust.
banks
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Michael Simpson

Senior Vic, Sentry Investments...

Price Price
$71.340
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Inter Pipeline(IPL-T) 

January 17, 2019

Pipeline assets and they are building a PDH plant in Alberta. It is a big capital project. He would buy it here. They may do a preferred or equity issue later in the year. The yield is a reflection of what happened in December. There is not a lot of international investors buying energy names. He thinks they will continue to pay the dividend.
oil pipelines
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Pipeline assets and they are building a PDH plant in Alberta. It is a big capital project. He would buy it here. They may do a preferred or equity issue later in the year. The yield is a reflection of what happened in December. There is not a lot of international investors buying energy names. He thinks they will continue to pay the dividend.
oil pipelines
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Michael Simpson

Senior Vic, Sentry Investments...

Price Price
$21.270
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY on WEAKNESS
He likes it. They are a leader with operations in Central America. They now have a contract with Wal-Mart. He likes it and if the market gets nervous this where participants will go.
household goods
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He likes it. They are a leader with operations in Central America. They now have a contract with Wal-Mart. He likes it and if the market gets nervous this where participants will go.
household goods
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Michael Simpson

Senior Vic, Sentry Investments...

Price Price
$43.280
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
It was one of the original restaurant royalty income companies. They have expanded quite rapidly. Their same store sales growth has been slowing and their payout ratio is slightly over 100%. He prefers to own the whole company and see it reinvesting in the business.
investment companies/funds
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It was one of the original restaurant royalty income companies. They have expanded quite rapidly. Their same store sales growth has been slowing and their payout ratio is slightly over 100%. He prefers to own the whole company and see it reinvesting in the business.
investment companies/funds
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Michael Simpson

Senior Vic, Sentry Investments...

Price Price
$16.960
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
Fertilizer & grass seed. There is more demand in the spring and summer. They supply the Cannabis industry. It has had a run-up. He only looks at it for its traditional businesses. He prefers more stability in the cash flow.
misc consumer products
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Fertilizer & grass seed. There is more demand in the spring and summer. They supply the Cannabis industry. It has had a run-up. He only looks at it for its traditional businesses. He prefers more stability in the cash flow.
misc consumer products
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Michael Simpson

Senior Vic, Sentry Investments...

Price Price
$68.260
Owned Owned
No

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WATCH
MEG Energy Corp(MEG-T) 

January 17, 2019

It dropped because Husky dropped their bid for the company. Can MEG make it on its own or are there other potential buyers – he would not hold his breath. It will continue to de-lever and become more attractive in the marketplace. Another potential bidder may not have to be in a hurry to buy it.
oil/gas
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It dropped because Husky dropped their bid for the company. Can MEG make it on its own or are there other potential buyers – he would not hold his breath. It will continue to de-lever and become more attractive in the marketplace. Another potential bidder may not have to be in a hurry to buy it.
oil/gas
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Michael Simpson

Senior Vic, Sentry Investments...

Price Price
$5.500
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
Alaris Royalty(AD-T) 

January 17, 2019

They buy operating businesses. They have a large portfolio. He would prefer to have a closer look at their companies and because there are so many he shies away from it.
Financial Services
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They buy operating businesses. They have a large portfolio. He would prefer to have a closer look at their companies and because there are so many he shies away from it.
Financial Services
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Michael Simpson

Senior Vic, Sentry Investments...

Price Price
$18.670
Owned Owned
No

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WATCH
Finning Int(FTT-T) 

January 17, 2019

They have a Caterpillar franchise out west and are in Latin America. They have a facility where they remanufacture Caterpillar parts. If you think there are legs left in the mining cycle you could add to it.
wholesale distributors
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They have a Caterpillar franchise out west and are in Latin America. They have a facility where they remanufacture Caterpillar parts. If you think there are legs left in the mining cycle you could add to it.
wholesale distributors
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Michael Simpson

Senior Vic, Sentry Investments...

Price Price
$25.770
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 15/18, Down 5%) They are expanding insurance operations in Asia. They have excess capital of $2.3 billion. They could do an acquisition or buy back shares. Extremely well run so he continues to like it and hold it.
insurance
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(A Top Pick Dec 15/18, Down 5%) They are expanding insurance operations in Asia. They have excess capital of $2.3 billion. They could do an acquisition or buy back shares. Extremely well run so he continues to like it and hold it.
insurance
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Michael Simpson

Senior Vic, Sentry Investments...

Price Price
$48.280
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Stanley Works, The(SWK-N) 

January 17, 2019

(A Top Pick Dec 15/18, Down 20%) Tariffs on steel and aluminum worked against them. They were set back by the closing of all the Sears stores. They raised their dividends for 50 years. 14.5 times earnings. A good company and he is sticking with it.
misc industrial products
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(A Top Pick Dec 15/18, Down 20%) Tariffs on steel and aluminum worked against them. They were set back by the closing of all the Sears stores. They raised their dividends for 50 years. 14.5 times earnings. A good company and he is sticking with it.
misc industrial products
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Michael Simpson

Senior Vic, Sentry Investments...

Price Price
$132.650
Owned Owned
Yes

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