Stock Opinions by Gerald Allaye-Chan - Stockchase Experts
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Gerald Allaye-Chan

On Stockchase since : Mar 2009

Portfolio Manager at Blackmont Capital

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Gerald Allaye-Chan Latest Top Picks...

Stock Opinions by Gerald Allaye-Chan - Stockchase Experts

Signal Opinion Expert Chart
HOLD
Royal Bank(RY-T) 

May 29, 2009

Long-term this one is definitely a hold. Has been very well managed and diversified. Will be a winner in the long-term.
banks
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Long-term this one is definitely a hold. Has been very well managed and diversified. Will be a winner in the long-term.
banks
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Gerald Allaye-C

Portfolio , Blackmont Capital...

Price Price
$43.700
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY on WEAKNESS
Talisman Energy(TLM-T) 

May 29, 2009

Great set of unconventional natural gas assets in North America as well as some growth assets of light and sweet crude in Asia. Will be funded by the strong cash flows they are generating from the UK North Sea. Likes the valuation and the balance sheet and would add on a pullback.
oil/gas
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Great set of unconventional natural gas assets in North America as well as some growth assets of light and sweet crude in Asia. Will be funded by the strong cash flows they are generating from the UK North Sea. Likes the valuation and the balance sheet and would add on a pullback.
oil/gas
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Gerald Allaye-C

Portfolio , Blackmont Capital...

Price Price
$17.710
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY on WEAKNESS
Been volatile and will continue to be so given their exposure to guaranteed variable annuities. A lot depends on the equity market. In the short term, the market is slightly overbought so there is a small downside risk. Would buy in the mid to high teens. Prefers Industrial Alliance (IAG-T) or Great West Life (GWO-T).
insurance
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Been volatile and will continue to be so given their exposure to guaranteed variable annuities. A lot depends on the equity market. In the short term, the market is slightly overbought so there is a small downside risk. Would buy in the mid to high teens. Prefers Industrial Alliance (IAG-T) or Great West Life (GWO-T).
insurance
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Gerald Allaye-C

Portfolio , Blackmont Capital...

Price Price
$23.500
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Would be most cautious with this given their US exposure. Continue to have significant exposure to structured investment vehicles. Exposure to commercial real estate in the US. Would be cautious on Canadian banks in general. If you own banks, consider taking some money off the table.
banks
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Would be most cautious with this given their US exposure. Continue to have significant exposure to structured investment vehicles. Exposure to commercial real estate in the US. Would be cautious on Canadian banks in general. If you own banks, consider taking some money off the table.
banks
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Gerald Allaye-C

Portfolio , Blackmont Capital...

Price Price
$43.800
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Obsidian Energy(OBE-T) 

May 29, 2009

In the past 5 years they have been a very active acquirer. His concern is their fairly high debt level. Depleting reserves by about 40,000 barrels per day and to replace will be expensive.
oil/gas
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In the past 5 years they have been a very active acquirer. His concern is their fairly high debt level. Depleting reserves by about 40,000 barrels per day and to replace will be expensive.
oil/gas
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Gerald Allaye-C

Portfolio , Blackmont Capital...

Price Price
$15.270
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
In the short term demand for fertilizers has been very weak but expect renewed demands for them come fall. Good long-term stock. A cheaper alternative would be Mosaic (MOS-N) and potentially provides a little more upside.
integrated mines
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In the short term demand for fertilizers has been very weak but expect renewed demands for them come fall. Good long-term stock. A cheaper alternative would be Mosaic (MOS-N) and potentially provides a little more upside.
integrated mines
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Gerald Allaye-C

Portfolio , Blackmont Capital...

Price Price
$125.900
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

May 29, 2009

Cdn$: Has moved up because of the flow away from the US$ and US index has dropped substantially. Also renewed strength in the commodity sector has been a factor. Expect to see continued strength for the next while and at some point will hit parity once again.
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Cdn$: Has moved up because of the flow away from the US$ and US index has dropped substantially. Also renewed strength in the commodity sector has been a factor. Expect to see continued strength for the next while and at some point will hit parity once again.
Unknown
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Gerald Allaye-C

Portfolio , Blackmont Capital...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

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TOP PICK
BlackBerry(BB-T) 

May 29, 2009

Continues to have very good business momentum. In the latest quarter they sold 3.9 million Blackberries and the estimate was only 3.3 million. Have 19.5% share of the smart phone market and growing. Guidance that margins will be growing.
electrical/electronic
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Continues to have very good business momentum. In the latest quarter they sold 3.9 million Blackberries and the estimate was only 3.3 million. Have 19.5% share of the smart phone market and growing. Guidance that margins will be growing.
electrical/electronic
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Gerald Allaye-C

Portfolio , Blackmont Capital...

Price Price
$85.530
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
Apple(AAPL-Q) 

May 29, 2009

Excellent momentum. Sold 11 million iPods last quarter with 9 million as the estimate. Also sold 3.9 million iPhones with the estimate at 3.35 million.
electrical/electronic
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Excellent momentum. Sold 11 million iPods last quarter with 9 million as the estimate. Also sold 3.9 million iPhones with the estimate at 3.35 million.
electrical/electronic
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Gerald Allaye-C

Portfolio , Blackmont Capital...

Price Price
$135.810
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
Migao Corp.(MGO-T) 

May 29, 2009

Specialty potash/fertilizer products company that is based out of China. Have 4 facilities in China now with three facilities under construction. Trading at about 8.5X earnings. Debt-free. Excellent play on both agricultural markets and the growing China market.
other services
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Specialty potash/fertilizer products company that is based out of China. Have 4 facilities in China now with three facilities under construction. Trading at about 8.5X earnings. Debt-free. Excellent play on both agricultural markets and the growing China market.
other services
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Gerald Allaye-C

Portfolio , Blackmont Capital...

Price Price
$8.080
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY on WEAKNESS
Inter Pipeline(IPL-T) 

May 29, 2009

Very well run business. Likes the surety of their cash flows. Decent growth possibilities in this. Very handsome yield.
oil pipelines
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Very well run business. Likes the surety of their cash flows. Decent growth possibilities in this. Very handsome yield.
oil pipelines
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Gerald Allaye-C

Portfolio , Blackmont Capital...

Price Price
$8.730
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Will be volatile given their exposure to guaranteed variable annuities. In the last quarter issued a preferred share that supports their balance sheet. Had partial ownership of CI Financial that they sold so they are very well capitalized. Long-term hold but in the short term, will be impacted by any weakness in the market.
insurance
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Will be volatile given their exposure to guaranteed variable annuities. In the last quarter issued a preferred share that supports their balance sheet. Had partial ownership of CI Financial that they sold so they are very well capitalized. Long-term hold but in the short term, will be impacted by any weakness in the market.
insurance
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0 comments
Gerald Allaye-C

Portfolio , Blackmont Capital...

Price Price
$28.710
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

April 17, 2009

Thinks market sentiment has changed from a month ago. There has been some optimism that investors can grasp. Economic data has stabilized. It will be a ‘W’ shaped recovery, rather than a ‘V’ shaped. Look for areas that will see a more sustainable rally. Look at stocks with good balance sheets and without a need to raise capital. This wont be a smooth ride forward.
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Thinks market sentiment has changed from a month ago. There has been some optimism that investors can grasp. Economic data has stabilized. It will be a ‘W’ shaped recovery, rather than a ‘V’ shaped. Look for areas that will see a more sustainable rally. Look at stocks with good balance sheets and without a need to raise capital. This wont be a smooth ride forward.
Unknown
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0 comments
Gerald Allaye-C

Portfolio , Blackmont Capital...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
With Bear ETFs there is the potential slippage in value due to the leverage.
investment companies/funds
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With Bear ETFs there is the potential slippage in value due to the leverage.
investment companies/funds
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Gerald Allaye-C

Portfolio , Blackmont Capital...

Price Price
$49.340
Owned Owned
Unknown

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WAIT
TransCanada Corp(TRP-T) 

April 17, 2009

Good outlook; embarking on an ambitious capital program to expand pipelines. There will be an earnings drag due to financing needs short term. You are paid to wait (5% dividend) for the long term.
oil/gas pipelines
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Good outlook; embarking on an ambitious capital program to expand pipelines. There will be an earnings drag due to financing needs short term. You are paid to wait (5% dividend) for the long term.
oil/gas pipelines
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Gerald Allaye-C

Portfolio , Blackmont Capital...

Price Price
$30.150
Owned Owned
Unknown

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