Obsidian Energy (OBE.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Obsidian Energy (OBE.TO)

15.69

-0.59 (3.62%)

as of Sep 22, 2026, 7:59:59 pm Market Open.

127 watching

DON'T BUY

Merging with Canetic (CNE.UN-T), which will give it a production of about 210,000 barrels a day. About 55% oil. Payout ratio is about 125%on a free cash flow basis (after maintenance capital spending), which is high.

WAIT

Acquiring Canetic (CNE.UN-T). Good acquisition as it gives critical mass of 2000 barrels a day production, capacity to absorb other income trusts and/or oil/gas exploration companies. Also gives them leverage to expand not only outside of Alberta, but into the US. Would wait for the merger to take position before buying.

DON'T BUY

Not intimate with this one, but he follows it because it is a bellwether and a great company. Extremely well run. Have headwinds on the gas side and distributing their money. Wants to know what they will be doing in the 3 years time. Would rather own a pure play.

DON'T BUY

Does have a lot of holdings in Alberta. There are a few others preferred in the trust sector.

HOLD

Doing reasonably well. The real issue here is going to be on royalties and taxation.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 4/06. Down 4.8%.) His Fair Market Value has slipped a fair amount. Strange as the company, when it became a trust, retained its land spread. On a BV, it is fairly cheap. Pressure on earnings and a lot depends on the Alberta royalty trust taxation.

SELL

Would sell this one and get into Crescent Point (CPG.UN-T), which has a more sustainable model.

DON'T BUY

The oil/gas energy trusts is a space that is really challenged. This one has a lot of property, but may not have the capacity to go and find a lot more production. Prefers to be outside of Canada until the political situation settles out.

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HOLD

A decent name. They are in a “show me” mode. There are better places to be.

BUY

Recently bought the assets of Vault (VNG.UN-T). Very big and very liquid. Good name. Little chance of a distribution cut.

BUY

A long-term buy. One of the leaders in the trust area. Has a 19% upside potential. One of the ones that will survive going forward.

WAIT

Been frustrating name. Diversified asset base. Have been operational problems. Need to show volume turnarounds. A lot of people calling for distribution to be cut. Has been under performing its peers.

DON'T BUY

25% positive differential. Not a big fan of the company nor would I have in portfolio. Other oil companies have positive fundamentals were looking for. Prefers Petro Canada and Husky.

HOLD

Has dropped significantly in the last 2 months, he would not be a seller. Production has been a little bit disappointing, but not significantly so. Produces in excess of 120,000 equivalent a day.

WAIT

Arc Energy (AET.UN-T) and Penn West (PWT.UN-T) are probably 2 of the better trusts with some of the best quality assets and the 2 biggest owners in the Pembina oilfield. If you are a bull on long-term oil prices, these are one of the better places to be

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Obsidian Energy (OBE.TO)