Obsidian Energy (OBE.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

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Obsidian Energy (OBE.TO)

15.85

-0.51 (3.12%)

as of Aug 28, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.

127 watching

Investor Insights

Aug 30, 2026, 12:00 am

This summary was created by AI, based on 2 opinions in the last 12 months.

Obsidian Energy (OBE-T) is currently a focus for several analysts, primarily due to its substantial exposure to oil and gas, with a favorable mix of approximately 70% oil and 30% gas. The market has shown enthusiasm this summer regarding its Clearwater exposure, suggesting potential for growth. Furthermore, the company possesses significant tax pools, implying that it may avoid tax payments for a decade, adding to its investment appeal. However, some experts highlight that the company's CEO is somewhat contentious, and despite reasonable well results, its small market cap renders it less relevant for institutional investors. This creates a conflicting perspective on whether it's a worthwhile investment, with some suggesting cautious holding for existing investors.

Consensus

Hold

Valuation

Undervalued

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BUY

They get no respect. It's a big producer. Have tremendous tax pools going forward that they will use after 2011. All the energy companies have sold off in spite of the fact that oil is still at $90. Very good entry point.

DON'T BUY

16.6% yield starts to reflect the possibility of a cut. Did a recent large merger with Canetic (CNE.UN-T). Doesn't consider it a growth vehicle.

COMMENT

One of the largest oil/gas trusts. Have been making a lot of acquisitions and have reached about 200,000 barrels a day. This leads to a lot of spending to maintain production. Has dropped a lot so he is looking at this. Almost 16% yield and will depend on the price of commodities and capital spending needed.

DON'T BUY

Model price is $25.52 and is certainly not mispriced. Still paying distributions of about $4, $1.02 per quarter and consensus means estimates on earnings is $1.29, so the equity is disappearing.

COMMENT

Merger with Canetic (CNE.UN-T) is going reasonably well. What they earn they have to spend on capital expenditures, pay dividends/distributions and now have to pay taxes. He likes a self-sustaining model where they earn as much as they spend and this company is not quite doing that yet.

BUY

Given the growth of foreign exchange reserves by Middle Eastern oil exporters, he thinks there will be a demand for diversification and this would be an obvious one for countries such as Abu Dhabi and Dubai. 15.5% distribution should be safe.

BUY

In the middle of a merger with Canetic (CNE.UN-T), which will make them the biggest trust out there. Expect it will be among the leaders in the sector simply because of the size, management and the properties they have.

SELL

Merged with Canetic (CNE.UN-T) and bought Vault (VNG.UN-T). Now has a fair bit of gas so there is some worry about maintaining the distribution. Longer term it will be fine. They have a good land position. If they are going to take a hit on distributions, it will probably be in the next 6 months.

DON'T BUY

All the oil/gas trusts are swimming against a very tough tide. They have to consider when to make a transition to a corporation. He likes the oil/gas sector but tries to keep it as simple as he can.

SELL

Merging with Canetic (CNE.UN-T) and bought Vault (VNG.UN-T), so there is a lot going on. Will be the largest oil/gas trust in Canada but not sure how a bigger trust will benefit. Down with tax loss selling, but market is also indicating it is not sure how a bigger trust will benefit going forward.

SELL

Good management but earnings forecasts have been steadily sinking and they are making an acquisition, which may be difficult for the company to support. They may have to reduce distributions. He is selling his holdings.

HOLD

Under delivered in 2007 on their capital efficiencies and production results. Put a lot of money into their heavy oil play Seal and haven't seen the results. Recently announced a merger with Canetic (CNE.UN-T). Feels this was to access More cash flow to put in the projects. Generates significant cash flows but also creates a much bigger company with much bigger declines that have to be replaced annually. Not convinced this is the best move for them.

COMMENT

Creating a colossus by merging with Canetic (CNE.UN-T) and will be able to snap up a lot of E & P companies along with smaller oil/gas income trusts. Tax pools stretch out for 5 or 6 years so distribution should be safe. He would like to see a better statement of where they are going. He owns Canetic and will take Penn West units when they come.

COMMENT

15% yield. The market is semi-expecting a cut. Feels trusts are paying you out of their own capital. They were set up to have long life assets but not as growth. It will no longer have that avenue after 2011. This one is better because it has a big land position and the merger will reduce this a little bit.

HOLD

Merging with Canetic (CNE.UN-T) and it's an OK transaction. Would be a holder, but not an aggressive buyer. This company has a good operating discipline and Canetic is more of an acquirer. Have some very good assets to put together.

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