NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

There are a lot of unknowns here, after the DeepSeek revelation Monday. He fears that chip order cancellations are trying to be priced into the stock, but doesn't know if it's finished. When it is, the stock is a buy. He needs more information. Too unclear.

NVDA tanked 17% on news of China's DeepSeek stealing the AI crown from ChatGPT, faster and cheaper. All AI-related stocks, including energy plummeted as the Nasdaq slid over 3%. Buy this weakness or sell? Honestly, he doesn't know. It's confusing. Analysts haven't had time to digest the DeepSeek news. How many NVDA chips does DeepSeek need to work?  Will NVDA's numbers come down if customers freeze and reassess their chip orders? Will things turn into the internet pause of 2002, which turned out to be a collapse? Or not? He has no view on DeepSeek, because he simply doesn't know enough. He sold some shares before today's news when shares were much higher to right-size his portfolio. However, the hardest thing is to wait until you know more instead of taking a knee-jerk action. 

Difficult to know exactly what valuation will be in a few years. Revenue growth has been strong, but the P/W multiples is also sky high. Would be a good stock to hold for the long term. Could see volatility in the next 1-2 years as growth plateaus. 

Probably the most crowded stock in the world, and people have made massive fortunes. Still hasn't reached target price. Huge beat with revenue up 97% YOY, thirst for chips. Trump's $500B AI announcement probably extends demand beyond 2028-29.

The danger with this stock is not owning it. A 27% growth rate, trading at 31x -- not as compelling as it was, but still has a PEG of almost 1. Try to buy lower, but better to buy now at $145 than not own at all.

Yes. Stock's rallied nicely, but backstopped by tremendous growth in sales and earnings. Most is due to its far-and-away leadership position on AI chips, which is still in early innings. Not inexpensive, but the sector has a huge runway for the next 3-5 years.

The Fed heavily influences tech stocks and this sector may underperform. Also, this trades at 55x forward PE, rich. The chart shows an uptrend, though. You don't want to see it fall through its last peak from mid-2024. He can't argue against this trend, but is cautious because NVDA has been too good. Currently, shares are consolidating, which is normal, but you don't want to see the chart break down. 

 A great, innovative company. They built the best mousetrap, but MSFT, Amazon, Meta and Google make up 40% of their revenues. So, those 4 companies must grow at the same pace, which he doesn't think they can. Ask: How much can their customers keep increasing spending? Also, those companies are developing their own chips, while AMD is nipping at their heels. Also, a problem with the new Blackwell chip is that not all data centres can't use them, because the chips may need liquid cooling, and not air cooling; not all data centres use liquid cooling. The valuation remains high. Revenues can be flat and its multiple may fall from 30x to 15x.

High beta, not for everybody. 52-week high followed by a 6% decline yesterday. But makes sense as part of a portfolio for a growth investor.

Denominator (PE multiple) keeps moving higher faster than the numerator (price). So it's actually fairly cheap. Looking at lots of free cashflow for 2025. Leader in AI and gaming technologies. Data centres, deep learning, breakthroughs in image and speech recognition. 

90% market share in the AI GPU segment. Earnings growth rate a staggering 50%, giving it a 0.7x PEG ratio, probably the cheapest mega-cap tech name out there. Yield is 0.03%.

Loves the company and CEO, but the valuation is not cheap (he's a value investor). Yes, NVDA is setting the industry standard in chips. Remember that hardware is, unlike software, a huge gross margin business. As in the past, no one company can maintain a hold on an industry, so eventually margins will come down. You must have a strong believe that Jensen Huang can maintain this lead and that data centres' build-out ca last long term.

2025 will be the year of Blackwell. The hyperscalers will continue to spend on this stock.

Never buy a stock when it spikes, even NVDA which he likes. But today when NVDA opened deep into the red, that was the sign to buy. The stocked rallied hard today.

They were blowing away expectations is recent quarters, but this raised the bar so high that disappointment is inevitable. Shares have returned to levels of last July, but so has the Magnificent 7. The Mag 7 has run up so much, that they need a rest. Also, competition will inevitably limit margins and revenues.

Semiconductors have pulled back since 1H. This name's done OK, but not the huge outperformance it had before. Technicals still show an upward trend, which is positive. Unless it breaks the trend, it's positive; look for that before you take action. Watch $130 level, as that's where the trend would be broken.

If the market rallies, NVDA will participate as well. So he's positive in the short term.

Great run, but he's taken money out. Trepidation about maintaining margins and the growth of Blackwell and data centres. So far, other competitors have not caught up. Concerned about semis in general; SMH ETF has not recovered from July peak the way the rest of tech has. NVDA is 25% of the SMH.