
NASDAQ:NVDA
Before you look at individual names, it's really important to understand the type of market we're in. What's happening in tech right now is not healthy. This name held up much longer than most of the index, but every stock in that index is broken. Great company, but don't have FOMO. Sector doesn't have tailwinds right now.
His pick in the sector is TSM, which makes the chips for NVDA and the like. It's more diversified. Valuation is cheaper. Much clearer growth path going forward over next few years.
NVDA has fallen, but it's not a cheap stock. Factored into the share price is a huge growth expectation. Just because share price has fallen on a high flyer, that doesn't necessarily make it cheap.
Forefront of AI revolution, which is in early innings but a long game with fits and starts. Technological superiority. DeepSeek started the uncertainty, bringing into question the capital spend by hyperscalers.
Big run, but earnings have moved along in step, so PEG is actually less expensive than before. PE has contracted to high 20s, earnings expected to grow at a similar cadence for the next 3 years. Pullback is buyable.
It's a $3T company now, so you're not going to get the same returns as the last few years. Fundamentals are sound. Sold out for this year. There is a threat with A6 custom chips, which will have to be looked at for 2026 and beyond.
It's fine, but there are other ways to play the AI trend. You should diversify and have a basket of names. Early winners are typically infrastructure names like NVDA, but as the sector makes progress, other names will build on what the early movers provided.
What we heard from CEO Jensen Huang at the current tech conference is what we've heard in the several past quarters: there's insatiable demand for AI, and NVDA is the middle of this and it's good for the company. We heard nothing new. He's surprised shares are not even higher today (they are bouncing). The modest share increase isn't tied to NVDA, but tied to the fact that the market has been oversold. That said, will this bounce continued into the close and beyond? The market is in no man's land.
Jensen Huang made a positive announcement at the tech conference and shares are bouncing today, but he's surprised the response is not bigger. It's muted, but is an omen for the next few weeks until the April 2 tariffs that Trump plans. Tech is up today, but down for the past several weeks. Wait and see.
He'd use broad money flows out of tech to enter tech. Phenomenal business economics. Don't look at its PE, just look at free cashflow. Compare price to FCF, invert that, and you get the FCF yield. Domestic demand and demand ex-Asia are still quite robust. Growth at a reasonable price here. If you've had your eye on this for a while, use this pullback to get in.
A lot of its customers are looking to get into the design business. Longer term that will have an impact. He owns TSM instead.