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NVIDIA CorporationNVDAWAITJan 27, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 22, 2026. Market Open.
His favourites right now are AMZN, NVDA, and MSFT. They're all going higher.
On the capex spend, sometimes it's a leap of faith. You're relying on these companies having some of the smartest people in the world with the most disposable capital. And those people really believe it's not a bridge to nowhere.
Undoubtedly, some companies are overdoing it and there will be another side to the mountain. But we don't know when that will be.
Chart shows staircase consolidations and rallies. Earnings days are a total black box for him, no idea what's going to happen today (coin toss). We'll either see a corrective phase back to support, or see another push higher.
Longer-term chart continues to work. He'd look to add on weakness -- either right away if there's a drop, or later in July/August if the stock moves higher in the short term.
He always says buy this, don't trade it. They just delivered another set of stunning numbers: revenue growing 85% year over year, revenue beating with most of their growth coming from their core data centre business, hyperscaler revenues up 115% YOY while other areas grew 74% YOY, while gross margins were in line, free cash flow beat, and announced an $80 billion share buyback. They raised guidance, too. But the stock is so big, it's hard to surprised investors, so the stock is flat after hours.
Likes it fundamentally, but a lot of things are overbought at this point. Be cautious how you step in. Will do well over next 12-24 months. Relatively cheap compared to other growth stories out there. The "arms dealer" of the AI buildout. Like the "picks & shovels" of the AI "gold rush". An ecosystem of hardware and software.
Will benefit from the major capex spend by hyperscalers. Earnings growth forecast for next few years is 45% a year. PEG ratio ~0.6x, very attractive valuation. Yield is 0.02%.
NVDA tanked 17% on news of China's DeepSeek stealing the AI crown from ChatGPT, faster and cheaper. All AI-related stocks, including energy plummeted as the Nasdaq slid over 3%. Buy this weakness or sell? Honestly, he doesn't know. It's confusing. Analysts haven't had time to digest the DeepSeek news. How many NVDA chips does DeepSeek need to work? Will NVDA's numbers come down if customers freeze and reassess their chip orders? Will things turn into the internet pause of 2002, which turned out to be a collapse? Or not? He has no view on DeepSeek, because he simply doesn't know enough. He sold some shares before today's news when shares were much higher to right-size his portfolio. However, the hardest thing is to wait until you know more instead of taking a knee-jerk action.