Opinions
Javed Mirza
NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA-Q
RISKY
Jan 31, 2025
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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A solid hold. Demand for their chips is not going anywhere, peers can't catch up and their technology remains advanced. Earnings are following the stock price. Accumulate this carefully on pullbacks, like now. The PE is not low, can be volatile, so don't buy a full position just yet.
Chip business is cyclical. The downslide can be precipitated by overstocking due to high demand, and that inventory has to be worked through. China has now decided it doesn't need the H20 chip, so all that inventory is now in the supply channel.
When you're paying a high price for these companies, your expectations are for sunny days. But you have to plan for the rainy ones.
It may appear that Nvidia is investing in hardware ($100 billion in OpenAI), but really they are financing the purchase of their own equipment. The market responded by pushing the stock back to record highs where it remain slightly under that. Will this mean NVDA will break out to new highs or are existing shareholders selling? Take some money off the table. He likes AI for the long term, but the market is ahead of itself now.
Only trading at 28x for 2027. Growing visibly in high 20s-low 30s. Only problem is if growth starts to slow. At what point do people jump ship? These are cyclical companies. The difference between being super-successful and not executing well can be by a factor of 10, as that's how exaggerated moves can be.
If demand really slows, look out below. Concerns of over-building in AI, might not all be needed, and we don't know for sure. The people saying that we need all this AI demand are the ones benefitting from the rising stock prices. The average of the 50 analysts who cover it are saying it can grow 27%. Still a good deal if what they're saying is true.
Trading at the top. If you already own it, he'd sell some calls, not to get called away but to earn some premiums. If you want to buy some more, you could sell some puts. If those puts work out, then you'll have bought lower than it is right now. Everyone should own some in their top 10 holdings.
His team's fundamental analyst likes it a lot, with a strong buy. Bottomed in 2023, then an uptrend, now has been basing over the last couple of months. With Monday's DeepSeek volatility, it tested its key 40-week MA. It's chopping around that level now.
If it remains above that level, the medium-term trend is up. You can nibble here, but he'd prefer it to come back up and take out recent highs and on strength. If we get a multi-week close below that level, strongly suggests a bigger corrective phase. Off the top of his head, the next support level is around $90 or $94.
Investing is tough, and when a group of university students came visiting his shop, and they all put their hypothetical $$ to work in NVDA, that has him very concerned.