50% off Premium Yearly
NVIDIA CorporationNVDABUYJan 31, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 22, 2026. Market Open.
His favourites right now are AMZN, NVDA, and MSFT. They're all going higher.
On the capex spend, sometimes it's a leap of faith. You're relying on these companies having some of the smartest people in the world with the most disposable capital. And those people really believe it's not a bridge to nowhere.
Undoubtedly, some companies are overdoing it and there will be another side to the mountain. But we don't know when that will be.
Chart shows staircase consolidations and rallies. Earnings days are a total black box for him, no idea what's going to happen today (coin toss). We'll either see a corrective phase back to support, or see another push higher.
Longer-term chart continues to work. He'd look to add on weakness -- either right away if there's a drop, or later in July/August if the stock moves higher in the short term.
He always says buy this, don't trade it. They just delivered another set of stunning numbers: revenue growing 85% year over year, revenue beating with most of their growth coming from their core data centre business, hyperscaler revenues up 115% YOY while other areas grew 74% YOY, while gross margins were in line, free cash flow beat, and announced an $80 billion share buyback. They raised guidance, too. But the stock is so big, it's hard to surprised investors, so the stock is flat after hours.
Likes it fundamentally, but a lot of things are overbought at this point. Be cautious how you step in. Will do well over next 12-24 months. Relatively cheap compared to other growth stories out there. The "arms dealer" of the AI buildout. Like the "picks & shovels" of the AI "gold rush". An ecosystem of hardware and software.
Will benefit from the major capex spend by hyperscalers. Earnings growth forecast for next few years is 45% a year. PEG ratio ~0.6x, very attractive valuation. Yield is 0.02%.
There are two scenarios after DeepSeek rocked the tech world earlier this week. One is that DeepSeek requires fewer computer chips to do the job, therefore eroding demand for NVDA's chips and decreasing their revenues. So, NVDA shares are overpriced and will decline. The other story is that maybe we're not getting the full story, that maybe the cost of developing DeepSeek was a lot more than publicized, and may been subsidized by the Chinese government. Independent research company, SemiAnalysis, questions the official cost. If the facts are not true, selling NVDA this week was a mistake. Consider that Meta's Zuckerberg, Elon Musk and Oracle are paying full price for their huge orders for NVDA's chips and that they must have done their due diligence before ordering those chips. They must have known about DeepSeek already. He thinks the Semianalysis story is spot on.