NVIDIA CorporationNVDABUYJan 31, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 26, 2026. Market Open.
Probably the most solid of the semis. In consolidation range since end of April. Trading above rising 200-day MA. He's concerned about the sector; SOXX has broken down fairly badly today (only ~24% of companies are on favourable technical footing).
Best chart and fundamental picture. Quality name. That said, if it breaks the 200-day MA then he's gone. Hanging in pretty well, hold for now.
Circular financing is definitely the biggest pushback in the AI trade. That's why it and AVGO are raising money to buy chips for Anthropic. Huge need for this technology for the industry to grow, but cashflow and payback aren't yet high enough.
In middle innings of the AI buildout, and NVDA will participate. Guiding to 70% revenue growth next year (and that's not just circular financing). One of his largest holdings.
Buying this name is like buying GM in 1920. Largest company in the world. Dominating the AI trend with chips that perform the best, everyone else is trying to catch up. Between 20-30x PE, growing 70%. Revenue forecast of 73% this year.
Sees no slowing till AI peak, which is probably 7-10 years away. Everyone should own this. Yield is 0.42%.
Thinks we're now in the later innings of the GPU cycle. Bifurcation between open- and closed-source models. Over time, NVDA will be the leader for open source. But Anthropic, OpenAI, and others like them will move ahead in closed-source. Over time, what part of the market will NVDA capture? Valuation's not expensive.
After owning for 5 years, she sold.
Exploding growth, visibly growing 48% compounded annually from 2026-2030. Trading 14x PE for 2028. Just beat and raised. Moat. Exceptional margins of 75%. Concerns on circular financing. 5 customers control 70% annual recurring revenue. Competition is trying to break in. Cyclical.
People aren't crediting it with enough value. Still a Buy. Still going to go up a lot. Yield is 0.45%.
Critics say Nvida is making investments to keep all their balls in the air -- making money by paying their customers, which is called circular financing. It's considered a sign of danger, because we saw this happen leading up to the Dotcom collapse. He strongly disagrees. NVDA's CEO knows that the companies that are using his chips are starting to make a ton of money, so why not back them up? The Dell CEO confirmed that to him.
We saw NVDA jump yesterday after another quarter of blowout earnings. They surprised on both the top and bottom line. EPS growth rate of 111% versus this time last year! Sales growth of 106%. Question is whether that's going to be sustainable long-term?
Not that it won't continue to be innovative and profitable, but some of these tech giants in the AI space have analyst expectations set very high.
There are two scenarios after DeepSeek rocked the tech world earlier this week. One is that DeepSeek requires fewer computer chips to do the job, therefore eroding demand for NVDA's chips and decreasing their revenues. So, NVDA shares are overpriced and will decline. The other story is that maybe we're not getting the full story, that maybe the cost of developing DeepSeek was a lot more than publicized, and may been subsidized by the Chinese government. Independent research company, SemiAnalysis, questions the official cost. If the facts are not true, selling NVDA this week was a mistake. Consider that Meta's Zuckerberg, Elon Musk and Oracle are paying full price for their huge orders for NVDA's chips and that they must have done their due diligence before ordering those chips. They must have known about DeepSeek already. He thinks the Semianalysis story is spot on.