NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

The market is in no-man's land given Trump's tariffs, but NVDA is up today (after the CEO spoke at a tech conference) is that they are supported by a great product pipeline. Macro, we're waiting for news and valuations are a little high.

A tough question. Chips are highly cyclical. He was cautious on this when it was soaring given its high valuation then and the future was cloudy--what is the evolution of AI? We're starting to see questions on that. Is investment in data centres an overreach? He's on the sidelines.

What's important today is that they have a big conference this week. On a 1-year chart, you can see for the last 3-4 months that it's been chopping around, not doing much of anything. While that's not bearish, it's certainly not bullish.

To get to the next leg up, it'll take even better news than the market's expecting. DeepSeek indicated that maybe we don't need as many of these chips as we think we do. INTC is a turnaround story. Lots of uncertainty, and it'll take a lot to lift this stock and others.

He added more. It's cheap vs. its history, as long as its earnings hold up. There's no competitive threat or threat to exports.

Recently purchased. Cheap at 25x forward PE, 31% growth rate, meaning PEG ratio is below 1 (rare in the tech space). Sentiment's changed on tech. Drop of 25-26% from previous highs, trading bit below 200-day MA but that's still trending higher. Will lead when market recovers.

He called this one a sell last year, and his opinion hasn't changed even with the pullback. FMV is 60% lower than where it is today. Pattern: goes up, pulls back to FMV, rinse and repeat. AI stuff is overbuilt. Chairman likes to over-hype.

Wonderful product, but it has to be used to make $$. And the people using AI to make money are few. There will be more down the road, but we need to wait. Risky.

He sold. Apple for example, is starting to make its own chip. Also, reports say China is buying the NVDA chip through other countries. Thirdly, Taiwan Semi could pick up the slack in NVDA. People owned NVDA for momentum and are now selling it for taxes.

The quarter last week was solid with earnings and sales both us and a solid guide. But export controls are a concern as are third-party selling via China. There is definitely continued demand, but that demand is slowing.

In his momentum mandate. Compelling valuation of 27-28x PE compared to its own history. Earnings expected to grow at a high-20s rate. PEG ratios around 1 are really good, up to 2 are OK, beyond that is expensive. Risks of further tariffs on China would not make a huge impact.

Risk is that export restrictions on the most advanced AI chips would be tightened further and impact sales. His bullishness on the name is underpinned by the AI revolution. Demand is there, though capacity constrained recently. 90% of chips go to data centres, rest into gaming and auto.

Owns for its terrific first-mover advantage in semiconductors and, in particular, GPUs and other chips for AI and data-centre applications. Reported good results. Stock's pulling back, but still in a long-and-strong secular uptrend. Volatile stock, hyper-owned and hyper-scrutinized. People tend to own it with a very short-term trading mentality. Positioned and weighted properly, it definitely deserves a spot in a diversified portfolio.

He bought more today on the dip. Trades at 24x earnings, expecting that to grow 50% this year. The growth rate will one day drop off, but now now. It boasted a triple beat and remains the leader of semis.

He added, selling March covered calls with a strike of $123 and expiring next Friday. Buy on 10-20% pullbacks.

Beat yesterday, margins guided lower. Significant ramp in Blackwell chips. Before yesterday, reasonably priced PEG ratio; that will change as they up their numbers. Not a slam dunk, but still reasonable valuation for growth.

Selling off today because of Trump's extra 10% threatened for China. He had trimmed at highs, he's holding the rest, stock still works from here.

It feels like NVDA is running in place, up 5% since August 28, 2024 earnings. Today's report will be the first time since mid-2022 when the stock has been negative since its prior report. In options, you're getting more of a premium for the puts vs. the calls. He doesn't know if this is the right play. NVDA now is consolidating and expects shares to pingpong between $115 and $145.

There's a lot riding on the print (earnings after the close) today. Shares are down 17% since the DeepSeek news. Now, we're hearing export controls. However, the hyperscalers have not changed their capex spending on AI ; DeepSeek had no real impact, including Microsoft and Meta and Amazon. We need to hear from NVDA $38 billion in revenue and guide $2-3 billion over and above, and hear about insatiable demand. He expects a strong print.