Opinions
Stephen Weiss, Founder, Short Hills Capital Partners
NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA-Q
COMMENT
Mar 19, 2025
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Used to make 75% gross margins, but those have jumped to 90%. If it goes back to historic gross margins, even if sales continue, you'll see a huge degradation in profit. Sweet spot in terms of demand. Market thinks it can do no wrong. Worries that demand will abate or just normalize. Good news is baked in. Watch your position size.
Premium contentPremium contentProbably a good place to write some calls against it, especially as average analyst price target is ~$175. Over next few days, analysts will probably up price targets due to H20 chips being allowed to China. It'll be king of the hill for at least 18 more months. Should definitely be in your top 5.
(Analysts’ price target is $175.00)Clear winner, because its chips make AI possible. There is some competition out there, but AVGO isn't one of them. Look for a good buying opportunity.
He sees a parallel with INTC, which was a darling for many years. Not now. NVDA still has the market share; there are companies trying to catch up, but NVDA is still further ahead.
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What we heard from CEO Jensen Huang at the current tech conference is what we've heard in the several past quarters: there's insatiable demand for AI, and NVDA is the middle of this and it's good for the company. We heard nothing new. He's surprised shares are not even higher today (they are bouncing). The modest share increase isn't tied to NVDA, but tied to the fact that the market has been oversold. That said, will this bounce continued into the close and beyond? The market is in no man's land.