Stephen Weiss, Founder, Short Hills Capital Partners NVIDIA Corporation NVDA-Q COMMENT Mar 19, 2025

A tough question. Chips are highly cyclical. He was cautious on this when it was soaring given its high valuation then and the future was cloudy--what is the evolution of AI? We're starting to see questions on that. Is investment in data centres an overreach? He's on the sidelines.

Jensen Huang made a positive announcement at the tech conference and shares are bouncing today, but he's surprised the response is not bigger. It's muted, but is an omen for the next few weeks until the April 2 tariffs that Trump plans. Tech is up today, but down for the past several weeks. Wait and see.

The market is in no-man's land given Trump's tariffs, but NVDA is up today (after the CEO spoke at a tech conference) is that they are supported by a great product pipeline. Macro, we're waiting for news and valuations are a little high.

It's a $3T company now, so you're not going to get the same returns as the last few years. Fundamentals are sound. Sold out for this year. There is a threat with A6 custom chips, which will have to be looked at for 2026 and beyond.

It's fine, but there are other ways to play the AI trend. You should diversify and have a basket of names. Early winners are typically infrastructure names like NVDA, but as the sector makes progress, other names will build on what the early movers provided.

Forefront of AI revolution, which is in early innings but a long game with fits and starts. Technological superiority. DeepSeek started the uncertainty, bringing into question the capital spend by hyperscalers. 

Big run, but earnings have moved along in step, so PEG is actually less expensive than before. PE has contracted to high 20s, earnings expected to grow at a similar cadence for the next 3 years. Pullback is buyable.

He believes in their earnings. AI chip spending will rise when NVDA rolls out a new chip next year. He's concerned about the death cross on its chart though. He needs to see the stock break out.

He targets $174 over 12 months. They make a ton of money and have tremendous margins, and are deploying that cash into robotics and Agentic AI. It's not only about their GPUs.

He believes in the new AI-powered industrial revolution where everything needs NVDA's GPUs. However, he sees shares coming down from here, and tonight's tariffs make it worse. Trades below 25x PE this year is cheap. Expect turbulence.

Is -19.29% for the first quarter of 2025. NVDA often has these hideous declines, but historically it often bounces back, though this drop is lower than others.