Stephen Weiss, Founder, Short Hills Capital Partners NVIDIA Corporation NVDA-Q COMMENT Mar 19, 2025

He targets $174 over 12 months. They make a ton of money and have tremendous margins, and are deploying that cash into robotics and Agentic AI. It's not only about their GPUs.

Is -19.29% for the first quarter of 2025. NVDA often has these hideous declines, but historically it often bounces back, though this drop is lower than others.

It broke to the downside. Because it's widely held, subject to a lot of volatility. Worth looking at around $90-95, as that's where a whole bunch of new dollars came in. Company is positive on its chip demand. This market throws baby out with bathwater; good chance to dip in on a good company.

His pick in the sector is TSM, which makes the chips for NVDA and the like. It's more diversified. Valuation is cheaper. Much clearer growth path going forward over next few years.

NVDA has fallen, but it's not a cheap stock. Factored into the share price is a huge growth expectation. Just because share price has fallen on a high flyer, that doesn't necessarily make it cheap.

Is -36% from highs. Own, don't trade it. Its AI isn't slowing, but investors in this market are selling everything AI. Buying into weakness has hurt, so step back and wait. Trades at only 21x PE and is the highest-quality company in the world. This stock will bounce back eventually.

Before you look at individual names, it's really important to understand the type of market we're in. What's happening in tech right now is not healthy. This name held up much longer than most of the index, but every stock in that index is broken. Great company, but don't have FOMO. Sector doesn't have tailwinds right now.

He'd use broad money flows out of tech to enter tech. Phenomenal business economics. Don't look at its PE, just look at free cashflow. Compare price to FCF, invert that, and you get the FCF yield. Domestic demand and demand ex-Asia are still quite robust. Growth at a reasonable price here. If you've had your eye on this for a while, use this pullback to get in.

A lot of its customers are looking to get into the design business. Longer term that will have an impact. He owns TSM instead.

Markets are down today from Trump hectoring Jay Powell badly. If this leads to a constitutional crisis, you will need some cash. He always believed that the President can't fire the Fed Chair. This talk and tariffs have done enormous damage to stocks. Losses could worsen if Trump keeps trashing Powell without achieving a good tariff deal. Washington is incredibly biased against Nvidia and Apple, two excellent companies. Trump is more interested in cutting off China than advancing America's interests. This makes NVDA a hard stock to own, though not as bad as Apple. Apple makes the best consumer products on Earth, and they will eventually get AI right. But Apple makes a lot of products in China. The market could get worse, but at some point the pain will get so bad that Trump will back its most punitive measures. There has to be some sanity here. A strong Apple with business in China is in America's interest, while Nvidia is worth supporting. It doesn't have to be this way.

Took a write down on chips, stock fell. Trading at ~21x PE. Really has a monopoly; AVGO may be getting close, AMD not close at all. New products coming out with Blackwell. Companies will continue to spend, if not as much. Earnings growing rapidly, great balance sheet, no debt. A chance to get a leader at a very good multiple. 

If it gets into the $90s, in a couple of years you won't regret buying. Growth will come from big tech players in US and Europe, not China so much. Yield is 0.04%.