NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

Markets are down today from Trump hectoring Jay Powell badly. If this leads to a constitutional crisis, you will need some cash. He always believed that the President can't fire the Fed Chair. This talk and tariffs have done enormous damage to stocks. Losses could worsen if Trump keeps trashing Powell without achieving a good tariff deal. Washington is incredibly biased against Nvidia and Apple, two excellent companies. Trump is more interested in cutting off China than advancing America's interests. This makes NVDA a hard stock to own, though not as bad as Apple. Apple makes the best consumer products on Earth, and they will eventually get AI right. But Apple makes a lot of products in China. The market could get worse, but at some point the pain will get so bad that Trump will back its most punitive measures. There has to be some sanity here. A strong Apple with business in China is in America's interest, while Nvidia is worth supporting. It doesn't have to be this way.

He'd use broad money flows out of tech to enter tech. Phenomenal business economics. Don't look at its PE, just look at free cashflow. Compare price to FCF, invert that, and you get the FCF yield. Domestic demand and demand ex-Asia are still quite robust. Growth at a reasonable price here. If you've had your eye on this for a while, use this pullback to get in.

A lot of its customers are looking to get into the design business. Longer term that will have an impact. He owns TSM instead.

Before you look at individual names, it's really important to understand the type of market we're in. What's happening in tech right now is not healthy. This name held up much longer than most of the index, but every stock in that index is broken. Great company, but don't have FOMO. Sector doesn't have tailwinds right now.

His pick in the sector is TSM, which makes the chips for NVDA and the like. It's more diversified. Valuation is cheaper. Much clearer growth path going forward over next few years.

NVDA has fallen, but it's not a cheap stock. Factored into the share price is a huge growth expectation. Just because share price has fallen on a high flyer, that doesn't necessarily make it cheap.

Is -36% from highs. Own, don't trade it. Its AI isn't slowing, but investors in this market are selling everything AI. Buying into weakness has hurt, so step back and wait. Trades at only 21x PE and is the highest-quality company in the world. This stock will bounce back eventually.

It broke to the downside. Because it's widely held, subject to a lot of volatility. Worth looking at around $90-95, as that's where a whole bunch of new dollars came in. Company is positive on its chip demand. This market throws baby out with bathwater; good chance to dip in on a good company.

Is -19.29% for the first quarter of 2025. NVDA often has these hideous declines, but historically it often bounces back, though this drop is lower than others.

He targets $174 over 12 months. They make a ton of money and have tremendous margins, and are deploying that cash into robotics and Agentic AI. It's not only about their GPUs.

He believes in the new AI-powered industrial revolution where everything needs NVDA's GPUs. However, he sees shares coming down from here, and tonight's tariffs make it worse. Trades below 25x PE this year is cheap. Expect turbulence.

He believes in their earnings. AI chip spending will rise when NVDA rolls out a new chip next year. He's concerned about the death cross on its chart though. He needs to see the stock break out.

Forefront of AI revolution, which is in early innings but a long game with fits and starts. Technological superiority. DeepSeek started the uncertainty, bringing into question the capital spend by hyperscalers. 

Big run, but earnings have moved along in step, so PEG is actually less expensive than before. PE has contracted to high 20s, earnings expected to grow at a similar cadence for the next 3 years. Pullback is buyable.

It's a $3T company now, so you're not going to get the same returns as the last few years. Fundamentals are sound. Sold out for this year. There is a threat with A6 custom chips, which will have to be looked at for 2026 and beyond.

It's fine, but there are other ways to play the AI trend. You should diversify and have a basket of names. Early winners are typically infrastructure names like NVDA, but as the sector makes progress, other names will build on what the early movers provided.

What we heard from CEO Jensen Huang at the current tech conference is what we've heard in the several past quarters: there's insatiable demand for AI, and NVDA is the middle of this and it's good for the company. We heard nothing new. He's surprised shares are not even higher today (they are bouncing). The modest share increase isn't tied to NVDA, but tied to the fact that the market has been oversold. That said, will this bounce continued into the close and beyond? The market is in no man's land.

Jensen Huang made a positive announcement at the tech conference and shares are bouncing today, but he's surprised the response is not bigger. It's muted, but is an omen for the next few weeks until the April 2 tariffs that Trump plans. Tech is up today, but down for the past several weeks. Wait and see.