Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

Apple and Disney+ mean more competition for Netflix, and higher costs to buy programs. There's more growth internationally with North American growth slowing. He prefers Disney to Netflix.

Facing competition from Disney, Amazon, Google, and Apple. Expensive. Is the 40% growth rate sustainable? Cash burn. Stock's gone sideways. Technically weak. Underperformed since 2018 with the other FANGs.

NFLX vs. DIS Two completely different companies in the same business. Netflix is the grand daddy of streaming. Success built on increasing subscriber base. Under the hood, it's cashflow negative. Accounting tricks let them amortize earnings. Disney is an established behemoth, getting into streaming. They own parks and ESPN, and have substance to support streaming investment.

62 million subs in US and 69 million worldwide. For five years it didn't have competition, and that competition has a body of existing content to stream (Disney+ and others). Compared that to Netflix, it needs to spend a lot on content. Yet, it isn't generating the cash flow to offset that cost. The question is: How many streamers will consumers subscribe to?

Chart went down, came back, now is quite flat. Lots of competition ahead from Disney. Kind of expensive. Higher beta. Growth rate susceptible to something going wrong. FANGs have been underperforming the broader market in the last 12 months. Will have to spend a lot to develop original content.

An amazing company and who is cutting their subscriptions? No one he knews. If you buy this, then you assume they will continue to raise rates and slow spending. He doesn't know that for sure and so he owns Disney instead.