NASDAQ:NFLX

Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

65.04
-3.65 (5.31%)
as of Oct 21, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Closed.
543 watching
0
BUY

Disney vs. Netflix over 10 years He owns both, but Netflix will see more grwoth as it penetrates internationally and doubling worldwide subscribers. They could expand into music and games. Disney pays a dividend, but Netflix will give you a higher total return. With Disney, be patient as they get into streaming, especially internationally.

TOP PICK

A growth stock with 30% growth rates in the short term, especially internationally. The second half of this year will see great new content, like the new Scorsese film, The Irishman. This will drive viewership. Netflix changes the way we watch TV. Also, they haven't pulled the lever on adding ads (say, at a lower-tier subscription fee). There's room for both Disney+ and Netflix, based on consumer research he's seen. (Analysts’ price target is $395.65)

DON'T BUY
The growth prospects are still good. This is not his preferred share though at 107 times earnings it is too expensive. You have to be concerned about Disney's entry into the space along with Apple as well.
DON'T BUY
There is a lot of competition and is an expensive name. Disney is coming into the streaming business. They are burning cash very quickly. The level of competition makes him nervous with this name and a high valuation.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 02/18, Up 13%)An August covered call. He sold an August call. He thought that the market was ahead of itself and he took some money off the table. The price in August was $338.50 and the option to sell at $360. It never got there. You wouldn't kept the stock. Your cost was $317, hence the 13% return.
HOLD

Their mid-April reporting was fine -- revenues and earnings were up 30% and 20%, respectively. Disney is creating a little apprehension in the space, but will not take over the space quickly. It is at risk to seeing the multiple collapse if there is a retracement in the market.

COMMENT

FANGs? None in the FANG space are good value right now. Amazon has a floor at $1650 and ceiling at $2125 -- with PE ratio of 60. Facebook has given a short term buy signal -- technical support around $187-$189 with 20-25% upside. Nvidia has hit close to full value near $180 -- he might be taking profit on this one soon. Apple had a lousy quarter, but it still beat earnings expectations. He would not touch it here. Google hit resistance the other day -- too expensive as well. Netflix has been up against resistance and unless it can break through he would not touch it. He would only consider Facebook and Amazon as holds or weak buys.

HOLD
They took a bit of a hit as DIS-N comes on stream. They have a huge leg up on Disney however and NFLX-Q has pretty big expansion plans in place. The market wants to hold in around the 200 day moving average. Until we break through $338 there is not too much to worry about. It is just starting to show some weakness relative to the S&P. Short term, some indicators are getting over sold so we may see an upturn.
COMMENT
They will be competing with other streamers. Also, they spend $15 billion a year, a lot. However, they proved they can raise prices without losing their audience. But it'll be tougher for them to remain profitable at these levels, given Disney+ coming.
WEAK BUY
Growth prospects despite huge PE? Yes it does, but it is trading at 88x this year's earnings. This doesn't work for his portfolio and he subscribes to Netflix himself. A great business model with huge retention, but they're facing competition with Amazon Prime, Google/Youtube and soon Apple. At least you'll get revenue increases when they continue to raise rates. It's rebounded the most in the FAANGs since Xmas Eve.
TOP PICK
It's found its mojo again recently buy pumping out original new films and shows, with 80 movies on the slate for 2019-2020 which dwarfs the Hollywood studios. In 2020-1, that free cash flow will transition from cash burn into cash flow growth. As they expand globally, their free cash flow will keep growing. (Analysts’ price target is $392.65)
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Expensive name. Trades at 88 times earnings. Q4 earnings were very strong. Revenues up 27% in the year. They are modeling earnings growth at 88%. If they can execute on their business model and growth flawlessly. Exposed to macro risk.
DON'T BUY
vs. Salesforce He owns neither. The issue with Netflix is they're borrowing a lot money to create their content--not a good way to grow long-term. True, they've raised rates by 25%, and he doesn't expect many to cut their subscriptions. You can increase prices by only so much. He likes companies like Salesforce for its synergies and growth using their model; companies will use Salesforce in strong as well as weak economies. He prefers Salesforce. However, both companies have very high valuations, so share prices will tumble if the companies make any stumble.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 20/18, Up 29%) He's long owned this and reduced in the last Q4, then added some back. The new catalyst are new seasons of proven shows like Orange Is The New Black and Stranger Things, and also Bird Box with 30 million viewers. The big competition though is the game Fortnite. Games are Netflix's big competition.
DON'T BUY
They've done a great job growing their business. He's always avoided it due to its valuation. He owns Disney instead; it has a much larger content library, and their acquisition of 20th Century Fox will pay off in the long run. They have a lot more experience delivering content around the world, too. NFLX is growing a lot, but also adding a lot of debt.
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