NASDAQ:NFLX

Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

65.04
-3.65 (5.31%)
as of Oct 21, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Closed.
543 watching
0
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 05/18, Up 41%) He still likes it. The simplest way to state it is 1.2 billion households with a cable connection. NFLX-Q has less than 200 Million. NFLX-Q can raise the price and lower the number of people on an account. As long as they don't blow their first mover advantage.
COMMENT
You recommended selling the $360 Dec. 2018 put on Netflix, but I'm now under water with Netflix under $270: What to do now? Close and take the loss, or rollover to a later date? Roll it. The FAAANGs turned first and that took the NASDAQ down, starting in September. The FAANGs got ahead of themselves. Take a 6-month put further out to $280 and you'll likely get $40.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 14/18, Up 8%) A Sept. $300 put. This option wouldn't have been assigned, because it expired Sept. 21. He was obligated to buy it at $300 and put up $30,000 to secure it with cash. You'd have that $30K sitting in a treasury bill until the option expires, then base your return on having that money at play here.
DON'T BUY
DIS-N vs. NFLX-Q. NTFLX is in a tough situation where a lot of content is being taken away from them next year. DIS-N is creating a competing service for their own content as well as 20 Century Fox's. They don't own 90% of the 'Netflix original' content. He prefers DIS-N.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Short- and medium-term outlook? This has seen a disproportional decline in value. As a 6-12-month play, now is a decent opportunity to enter this. But be careful if you're looking three years with this.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
They have 130 million users, and there are 1.2 billion cable connections worldwide, so they have room to expand. They have a high PE, so even a little bad news will push this stock down. He owns this for the long term.
WATCH
He would love to see it pull back to $250 to be a buyer. His model price is $89.66 so it is not without risk.
WATCH
He has never owned this stock. However, the recent pullback does make this “future Disney” company worthy of consideration.
COMMENT

This is a tremendous growth \opportunity as they expand internationally more. He watches it. They can raise their rates by $1 per month and easily raise revenues, yetd nobody will unsubscribe. But their multiple is way too high at 108x forward earnings.

COMMENT

Hard to value Netflix. They have pricing power and dominate the growing streaming sector. Good market share in the U.S. and growing share outside U.S. It's all about the content they produce, which eats up their cash flow. It'll be volatile. Young people who use Netflix share their passwords, so that's an issue. Netflix has to deal with this. But their brand is strong and the shift to streaming away from TV is definitely on their side.

BUY

This has 130 million subscribers globally and there are 1.2 billion cable company subscribers. There’s a long way to go in market penetration. He sees it as still being in a growth phase and compares this to Amazon 10 years ago. After they start running out of new subscribers to add, they can increase revenue through pricing leverage. They are currently very liberal in terms of how many people can watch shows through the same subscription at the same time. Tightening that can raise revenue. They are the first mover in a growing space. He has only a small position but believes it has significant upside over many years.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Big admirer of how the company is set up. Growth is phenomenal, especially in China and India. Only challenge is the valuation. Going to be a good company for a long time. The risk is constantly betting on it beating every quarter. If it doesn’t, it’s a good time to add. (Analysts’ price target is $371.08.)

DON'T BUY

Reminds him of Nortel. Netflix is worth only 25% of its current share price. It'll face competition from Disney. As long as there's a bull market, this stock will continue to do well. It suffers enormous volatility--can you stomach that?

TOP PICK

Covered call selling DEC 360 calls. More volatile stock. Premiums are three times what you would get from an Apple (AAPL-Q) option. They missed because of the World Cup. He wouldn’t be surprised if they pick up in the next quarters.

HOLD

There recent earnings indicated their growth in subscribers is slowing. This is an example where the stock is priced for perfection – any slip up and the stock can plunge. Management has done an outstanding job to date. They are now spending on content and this impresses him how they remain profitable.

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