Microsoft Corp (MSFT)

After the bell, they delivered a strong overall quarter. But investors looked closely at the constant-currency revenue growth of Azure, which slightly missed. Don't do anything until hearing the conference call first (happening now).

Must own company. Company has done a fantastic job. Very good management team. Ability to generate cash flow incredible. Could see a correction in the stock price - but is excellent company for the long term. 

A wild card. He's sold some of his shares lately. They're building a lot of data centres, but their AI PC failed (so far) and possibly there's fallout with OpenAI and possibly CoPilot will disappoint. If MSFT didn't have such a huge installed base, he would have sold all his shares.

He trimmed shares late last year and placed hedges in effect through March. The company got ahead of itself. The CEO in the last 2 conference calls pushed too hard AI, though they are a company can roll out AI enhancements to their Office 365 an cloud products. Also, they are vulnerable to European anti-trust moves. He himself won't buy it now, but you can buy it for the long term. He's up 60% on it over the last 2 years, so he's being prudent. It has burned off a lot of excess and sees it falling below $400 in a sloppy market. It will be capped at $450.

Now trading at 200-day MA and oversold, with RSI around 41-42. Likes it here. Long term the chart doesn't get much better, with higher highs and higher lows. Valuation a bit pricey at 3x PEG ratio, 32x forward PE, and 15-16% growth. At forefront of AI space.

Misunderstood company - best source of value is distribution (not new tech). Ability to scale new technologies unprecedented. Ability to manage capital and manage business very strong. Excellent margins and strong cash flows. CEO is essential to company success, but company has reached "escape velocity", so not concerned about management ability (can be replaced). 

They're spending at least $80 billion of capex in AI to keep up with peers, but this has been overhang on the stock. Shares are up only 13% this year, lagging Mag 7 peers. It's early--we don't know what's going on with their AI, but MSFT's suite of services have always been aimed at operational efficiency. We'll see how their AI plays out in coming quarters.

Is up 13% for the year, but most of those gains happened in January, driven by AI hopes. MSFT is spending a lot on AI. The stock is running in place, and expects it to restart its positive momentum. However, we need to first see benefit coming from their AI spending. Near-term, the tech winners in AI are Amazon, Alphabet and Nvidia. But set your expectations for MSFT for the long term.

He owns MSFT, and it's also involved in quantum computing. Other names to think about are GOOG, AMZN, IBM, Atos out of Europe, and Toshiba from Japan.

If you double your money, do the smart thing and sell half. These tech stocks are 3x riskier than the market if interest rates go up. It's about managing risk in your portfolio. 

(Note the short timeframe.)
Seasonal time for tech, so he's going to keep holding as long as a massive bear doesn't come along. Doesn't have a lot of risk, as he knows exactly where he'd sell it. If it falls below the breakout point, he'll starting paring back. Has only a 2-3% position.

Successfully integrating AI into products, will continue. Still more growth ahead. The most successful company in incorporating AI into products we're already buying.

It is a classic stalwart and is strong in the businesses they dominate. Their business is more with companies than individuals. They can convert their customer base to to the cloud base so there are years of growth potential ahead.

By far, the world's biggest software company. Scale advantage, defensive growth. Great exposure to long-term secular info-tech themes: digital transformation, cloud computing, business intelligence, AI, security. 70% of revenues are recurring. Mission-critical products. Strong incumbency advantage, big competitive moat. 

Sustainable EPS growth rate. Valuation is reasonable in view of growth prospects. Yield is 0.8%.

One of his 4 (AMZN, META, GOOG, and MSFT) main holdings in the technology space.